Power Plant Standards Could Save Thousands of Lives Every Year, Report Says.

Power plant standards to cut climate-changing carbon emissions will reduce other harmful air pollution and provide substantial health benefits, according to a new report co-authored by a BUSPH researcher.

The research shows that, depending on the policy options included in the final Clean Power Plan, power plant standards could prevent thousands of premature deaths and hospitalizations, as well as hundreds of heart attacks, in the U.S. every year.

In the report, “Health Co-benefits of Carbon Standards for Existing Power Plants,” scientists at BU, Harvard and Syracuse universities analyzed three options for standards to reduce carbon pollution from power plants. They modeled air quality and health benefits for these scenarios and compared them to business-as- usual in the year 2020.

The analysis is called a “co- benefits” study because it focuses on the added benefits of a carbon standard that come from reducing other potentially harmful power plant emissions, such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. The pollutants are precursors to smog and soot that cause heart and lung disease, exacerbate asthma, and contribute to premature death.

“The results from the different scenarios show that policy choices matter, and we can’t take health benefits for granted,” said co-author Jonathan Levy, professor of environmental health at BUSPH. “Whether communities experience these health gains from cleaner air will depend on the details of the final power plant standards.”

Lead author Joel Schwartz of the Harvard School of Public Health noted that thousands of people suffer serious health problems from air pollution in the U.S. every year, “and these health problems mostly occur in areas where pollution is meeting current EPA standards.”

The three scenarios analyzed by the research team vary in the stringency of the carbon targets, the flexibility in compliance options given to utilities, and the levels of investment in end-user energy efficiency. The scenarios were developed prior to the June 2014 release of the proposed Clean Power Plan and represent a range of options relevant to the development of the final standards.

The researchers found that a scenario that is moderately stringent and highly flexible yields the greatest estimated health benefits. Of the three options analyzed, this scenario is most similar to the proposed Clean Power Plan.

The analysis shows that in 2020, this scenario would result in an estimated 3,500 fewer premature deaths from air pollution every year, 1,000 fewer hospital admissions from heart and lung problems, 220 fewer heart attacks, and many other health benefits, including reduced asthma symptoms.

The other two scenarios the researchers analyzed had lower health benefits. The option that is focused on cutting carbon at existing power plants, but has limited flexibility for compliance and does not include demand-side energy efficiency, results in higher carbon reductions, but slightly lower added health benefits than the top-performing scenario. The option that is focused only on improving heat rates at existing power plants results in very modest carbon reductions and a slight estimated increase in mortality and heart attacks.

The report builds on research that the authors released in May by using the air quality changes to calculate estimated health benefits. It is the only research to date that compares the added non-climate health benefits of a wide range of alternatives for the power plant carbon standards and maps them for the entire continental U.S.

The results show that the top scenario would provide health benefits in all of the lower 48 states. The states with the greatest estimated number of lives saved per year would be: PA, OH, TX, IL, MI, NY, NC, GA, MO, VA, TN, and IN. All of these states have experienced persistent air quality problems associated with power plant pollution.

The U.S. EPA is taking public comments on the proposed Clean Power Plan through December 1, 2014, and is expected to issue a final rule for carbon emissions from power plants in June 2015.