Hare Talks U.S. Pressure and Cuba’s Path Forward
Paul Webster Hare, Master Lecturer at the Pardee School and former British ambassador to Cuba, recently shared his analysis of Cuba’s political and economic outlook in an interview with Swedish National Radio’s show Konflikt.
Addressing questions about whether the Cuban regime can survive mounting internal pressures and strained relations with the United States, Hare cautioned against expectations of immediate change. He noted that while Washington continues to signal pressure, “it’s unlikely that the U.S. government is going to make major moves on Cuba, in my view, for the next few weeks,” even as Cuba faces new challenges, including the loss of its main oil supplier.
Hare also explored longer-term scenarios for U.S.–Cuba relations, emphasizing divisions within U.S. policy circles and skepticism about rapid regime change. While some advocates favor swift multiparty elections and a wholesale dismantling of the current system, Hare described such outcomes as unrealistic given the absence of an organized domestic opposition. He suggested that U.S. policymakers are likely to take a more pragmatic approach, observing that “they know that you can’t just parachute in leaders from Florida or elsewhere and claim that they’re going to run the country.”
Looking ahead, Hare pointed to Cuba’s untapped economic potential, from agriculture to selective foreign investment, as a critical factor in any path toward greater stability and reform, while underscoring the risks for both Havana and Washington if expectations outpace political realities.
The full segment can be listened to here in Swedish.
Paul Webster Hare is a master lecturer at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. He served as British Ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004 and also represented the U.K. to the European Union in Brussels, New York, Portugal, and Venezuela as deputy head of mission. Hare has extensively written about Cuba for renowned news outlets including The Financial Times, The Atlantic, Newsweek, and The Huffington Post. He is also the co-editor of the Palgrave Handbook of Diplomatic Reform and Innovation, which analyzes current practices of diplomacy and proposes practical solutions to improve diplomatic outcomes.