Heine Breaks Down Emergence of Second Cold War

Jorge Heine, Research Professor at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies and Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, was quoted extensively in a new El Pais article on the emergence of a new Cold War and what that entails for the international system.

The article, titled “A new Cold War between the US and China is spreading around the world,” detailed the ongoing competition between the United States and China, how each is working to advance their international position, as well as the global implications of such this great power struggle. While the notion of a second “Cold War” between the U.S. and China has been criticized since 2020 as premature as there was only a commercial-technological conflict and not an ideological-military one, Heine argues that this argument is no longer applicable. according to Heine, “there are differences between this Second Cold War and the first, above all due to the size of the Chinese economy and the interdependence between the two countries…but, in many more ways, the [cold wars] are similar. And there are no signs that it will change in the immediate future.”

The U.S. has shifted its focus to Asia over the past decade, and with China’s continuous global influence, policymakers have turned to a regional powerhouse as a possible counterweight: India. While efforts have been made by the U.S. to bring India more into the strategic fold, Heine argues this will not immediately break China’s hold on the global economy in particular.

An excerpt:

Firstly, because the Indian economy is much smaller than the Chinese one; secondly, because New Delhi is not integrated into the regional cooperation mechanisms. Also, I doubt that [India’s] attraction as a potential manufacturing relocation destination is superior to what China offers in terms of infrastructure investment and trade. The US market is closed. Decoupling from China may gain momentum in the long term but not in the short term. It’s very difficult to prepare the workforce, the logistics…

The full article can be read on El Pais‘ website.

Ambassador Jorge Heine is a Research Professor at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University. He has served as ambassador of Chile to China (2014-2017), to India (2003-2007), and to South Africa (1994-1999), and as a Cabinet Minister in the Chilean Government. Read more about Ambassador Heine on his Pardee School faculty profile.