Hare: Inside the Trump Administration’s Split Over Cuba
In an interview titled “Why is Trump talking about action on Cuba and what could that look like?” or the CBS News, Paul Webster Hare, former British ambassador to Cuba and a master lecturer at the Pardee School of Global Studies, discussed how President Trump’s escalating rhetoric about potentially “taking” Cuba has sparked concern.
Regional experts largely see the threats as leverage rather than a serious plan for military action. Hare says U.S. policy is shaped by deep divisions inside the Trump administration, which help explain the mixed signals coming from Washington. Going on to say,
“I think there are a number of factions within the administration where some would be happy to do a deal with most of the existing Cuban government if it gave greater access to businesses, and particularly to Cuban Americans to come back and invest.”
Hare contrasted that pragmatic wing with hardliners pushing for a more sweeping outcome. “The other faction, I think, is insisting on a complete regime change,” he said. That split, Hare suggested, makes a negotiated economic opening more plausible than outright political overthrow, even as the administration tightens economic pressure through sanctions and an oil blockade.
He added that a truly aggressive U.S. approach would go much further than forcing leadership changes, noting that “a more ambitious move would involve bringing in someone from outside the regime,” a step that would likely require sustained U.S. involvement and carry significant political risks.
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Paul Webster Hare is a master lecturer at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. He served as British Ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004 and also represented the U.K. to the European Union in Brussels, New York, Portugal, and Venezuela as deputy head of mission. Hare has extensively written about Cuba for renowned news outlets including The Financial Times, The Atlantic, Newsweek, and The Huffington Post. He is also the co-editor of the Palgrave Handbook of Diplomatic Reform and Innovation, which analyzes current practices of diplomacy and proposes practical solutions to improve diplomatic outcomes.