Najam in BU Today on Afghanistan Peace Talks Collapse
Adil Najam, Dean of the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University, was interviewed for a recent article examining the breakdown of Afghanistan peace talks between the Taliban and United States.
Najam was interviewed for a September 11, 2019 article in BU Today entitled “Whither Afghanistan after Peace Talk Collapse?”
From the text of the article:
Was it necessary or wise to cancel peace talks, and should the president have publicized his decision?
Najam: There is no surprise that the talks failed. There is no surprise that President Trump announced it in the way he did. It would have been a surprise if he had done it in any other way. The only surprise was that things had come as far as a possible Camp David meeting being contemplated. But let us be clear that the talks have not been called off because of the Kabul attack. The Taliban have never halted fighting during these talks. Nor has the United States. Clearly, the talks failed on other grounds—most likely, the Taliban were not willing to accept US conditions, and the United States was not able to convince the government in Kabul to go along with an agreement.
What’s the likely effect of the decision on the 14,000 American troops still in Afghanistan? Does the situation argue for pulling them out, as some have long advocated, or for somehow fortifying their protections?
Najam:My sense is that at least some US troops will be pulled out before November 2020. Given Mr. Trump’s negotiation style, this announcement is not as much a “decision” as a pressure tactic. I fear that the Taliban’s negotiation style is similar to his. Despite this, I think they will return to the talks because both want a US troop withdrawal, but not because it will lead to peace. For Mr. Trump, this is a major election promise that he would like to fulfill before the next election. For the Taliban, they sense that they have the advantage right now, and with US troops gone, they will be able to press further on that advantage.
For American troops stationed in Afghanistan, unfortunately, even if there is an eventual withdrawal, the prognosis in the very short-term can only be further escalation.
Read the entire article here.
Adil Najam is the inaugural dean of the Pardee School and a commentator on foreign policy and diplomacy in South Asia. Learn more about him here.