Selin Discusses Climate Politics in U.S. Presidential Election with Swedish Media
In an interview with Swedish newspaper Dagens ETC on November 5, 2024, Henrik Selin, Professor of International Relations at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, analyzed the diminished role of climate policy in the current U.S. presidential campaign.
Speaking to Dagens ETC, Selin explained that while climate remains critically important, the presidential campaign has focused primarily on immigration and economic concerns. “The campaign has centered on swing states and issues that undecided voters consider important. Less than one percent of those living in the country will determine the election, and Donald Trump and Republicans have chosen to emphasize immigration while Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz have focused more on economic issues,” Selin told the newspaper.
When asked about voter engagement with climate issues, Selin noted that while climate change matters to voters in states like California and Massachusetts, these states’ voting patterns are already predictable. “But we already know how they will vote. These aren’t the voters who need to be persuaded,” he explained.
Regarding potential policy implications, Selin outlined stark differences between possible administrations. While not expecting radical changes from Biden’s climate policies under a Harris presidency, he warned of significant shifts under Trump. “He will try to stop as much of the climate package as he can. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement again, and obviously there won’t be any new climate policy initiatives if he becomes president,” Selin stated.
When asked about global climate implications, Selin emphasized America’s position as the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, noting that U.S. emissions trajectory over the next four years is crucial. He added that progress in international climate policy generally requires at least minimal agreement between the U.S. and China.
However, Selin highlighted state-level autonomy as a significant factor, explaining that Trump cannot withdraw the entire climate package. “Many parts of IRA have already taken effect, and both blue and red states benefit from it. Regardless of who wins, many states will continue their climate work while others will oppose more ambitious transition,” he said. He also noted that market forces, particularly the cost competitiveness of renewable energy versus oil and coal, would influence energy choices regardless of federal policy.
Henrik Selin has been at Boston University since 2004. His research and teaching focus on global and regional politics and policymaking on the environment and sustainable development. He is the author of Mercury Stories: Understanding Sustainability through a Volatile Element, European Union Environmental Governance, and Global Governance of Hazardous Chemicals: Challenges of Multilevel Management. He is also the author and co-author of more than four dozen peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters. He also serves as Editor for the journal Global Environmental Politics. Learn more about Professor Selin on his faculty profile.