Shifrinson Publishes Brief on US-China Relations
Joshua Shifrinson, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University, recently published a brief on US-China Relations.
Shifrinson’s brief, entitled “Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts,” was published in The Ambassador’s Brief on January 3, 2020.
From the text of the brief:
Given the rise of new great powers abroad and domestic problems at home, the United States faces a sustained period of relative geopolitical decline. This process is akin to the experience of Britain in the early twentieth century or France in the late 1800s. Significant attention focuses on the risk that American decline may prompt peer and near-peer states such as China to challenge vital American interest
Examining all major cases of great power decline and the responses thereto since the mid-1800s, I find that great powers will look to two main variables, when formulating strategy vis-à-vis decliners:
- the strategic value of the decliner as a potential partner; and
- the military strength of the decliner.
An analysis through the lens of these variables shows:
- Decline rarely prompts overt challenges: rising states fear blowback from challenging a militarily strong decliner, and often prefer to bide their time
- Declining states often gain significant support from other great powers: states frequently see significant strategic value in using decliners as potential partners against common threats
- Military strength in a declining state can be counterproductive: it can scare off potential partners, just as much as it can deter challengers
Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson’s teaching and research interests focus on the intersection of international security and diplomatic history, particularly the rise and fall of great powers and the origins of grand strategy. He has special expertise in great power politics since 1945 and U.S. engagement in Europe and Asia. Shifrinson’s first book, Rising Titans, Falling Giants: How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts (Cornell University Press, 2018) builds on extensive archival research focused on U.S. and Soviet foreign policy after 1945 to explain why some rising states challenge and prey upon declining great powers, while others seek to support and cooperate with declining states.