Global Security Series Welcomes Tong Zhao
On Thursday, March 27th, Pardee was joined by Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Zhao hosted an engaging discussion with students and guests, as he spoke to recent expansions in China’s stockpile of nuclear weapons. One of the first topics Zhao spoke on was the management of nuclear escalation and how necessary a reassessment of China’s own posturing is to diminishing the risk of conflict. The seasoned researcher remarked on his own analysis of decision making among leadership in Beijing, arguing that China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal is largely undertaken as a move to improve China’s leverage and soft power in future confrontations with the United States. Since the Chinese arsenal is far smaller than that of the U.S., he affirmed, closing that gap has become a new way for the People’s Republic to better assert itself, both regionally and globally.
Guests brought insightful questions to the conversation, asking Zhao about his own methodology in studying the trajectory of China’s decision making, as well as the role of contentious issues like the role of Taiwan in Beijing’s strategy. To best understand what some politicians are acting on, “it requires some insider understanding of Chinese policy communities thinking on these issues,” he said. Expanding on this, Zhao who previously served in foreign affairs in the Chinese government himself, spoke to the gravity of events like the COVID-19 Pandemic, which he described as a cataclysmic moment which many in government in China saw as an almost unprecedented crisis. This same crisis, he explained, even somewhat influenced the decision to expand the nuclear arsenal. Further, he spoke to the effect that the increasingly centralized rule of President Xi Jinping has been in this process.
“Xi Jinping has been concentrating power. He discourages officials and experts from challenging his policy thinking and vision and preferences to the point that no one dares to raise questions, and the military and defense industry are more than happy to be charged with money and resources,” he noted. When referencing the progression of the President’s personal preference for an enlarged stockpile, “they quickly implemented Mr. Xi’s policy vision without raising questions.”
The Pardee community was thrilled to be joined by Zhao, and was grateful for his tremendous insight!