Navigating Ethiopia’s Crisis: Insights from Dan Connell’s Seminar
On Monday, February 5, 2024, noted journalist and Horn of Africa expert Dan Connell presented a riveting talk in the Walter Rodney Seminar series at the African Studies Center on “Ethiopia in Crisis: From War to Peace and Back Again.” Drawing on his November visit to the region as well as his extensive contacts with key players, Connell laid out the complexity of a situation in which Ethiopia may be descending into a crisis that could rival the conflict and famine of the 1980s. Connell, a research associate of the African Studies Center, noted the particular and unsettling role of ambitious leaders in the region, including Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. Connell also examined the role of Tigrayan independence efforts as well as climactic and agricultural pressures that have the potential that have disrupted normal agricultural production.
Connell highlighted the multilateral mediation efforts that produced the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement which established terms for a cessation of hostilities between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray people’s Liberation Front. This agreement remains fragile and it is unclear how dedicated the parties are to its enforcement. The agreement includes ambitious terms on cessation of hostilities, protection of civilians, humanitarian access and disarmament. The humanitarian provisions are now the most urgent and humanitarian access has been blocked by the parties. Connell pressed for urgent action to get food to those most in need.
In a lively discussion that followed, participants focused on the potential for cash crops to relieve famine, the links been ecological degradation and conflict, and demographic changes that might influence the future of the region.
Connell’s talk served as a warning that conflicting ambitions in the region produce catastrophic famine, and that international mediation efforts have laid down a reasonable path to avoid this – but only if the agreement is implemented.
Dan Connell is a research associate at Boston University’s African Studies Center and a retired senior lecturer in journalism and African politics at Simmons College. His work focuses mainly on Eritrea, but it has ranged across Africa and the Middle East to Central America and the Philippines. The cross-cutting themes are democracy, development and social justice and the indispensable linkage among them. He has written numerous books and articles, and he founded and directed two NGOs. Learn more about him here.