Berger in Defense One on Conflict in the East China Sea
Thomas Berger, Professor of International Relations at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University, was interviewed on the potential for a conflict between China and Japan as tensions rise in the East China Sea.
Berger was quoted in an August 8, 2017 article in Defense One entitled “Easing A Flashpoint for War in the East China Sea.“
From the text of the article:
Thomas Berger, a Boston University international-relations professor who specializes in East Asia, divides potential solutions into “management” and “reconciliation.” Berger notes that China wants to “win without fighting” — to force Japan to give up the Senkakus without going to war. But if Japan continues to assert its sovereignty, and if the United States refuses to abandon its ally on this issue, Berger argues that in the short term Washington must pursue a strategy of managing the situation. “To do this, it must signal through military exercises and defense investments that it is committed to its alliance with Japan, thus deterring China from invading the Senkaku Islands,” he says.
In the long term, Berger argues, China and Japan should work together to defuse the situation in a policy of “reconciliation.” They might, for example, reach an agreement that divides the resources in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, while leaving the issue of sovereignty untouched. Another potential solution is a “ritualized system” in which China softens its rhetoric and shrinks its military presence in the area, while still asserting its sovereignty by routinely sending ships into the disputed waters. Finally, Berger suggests that Chinese leaders might publicly “shelve” the Senkaku Islands issue, as Deng Xiaoping did in 1978, effectively recognizing the intractability of the dispute and focusing on other matters in the Sino-Japanese relationship. He says the “ball is in China’s court” for reconciliation with Japan.
So, what steps can the United States take to facilitate peace in the East China Sea? Above all else, Washington must promote dialogue between leaders in Beijing and Tokyo. Last year, Beijing suspended official communication with Taiwanese leaders. A similar break with Japan would exponentially increase the chances of accidental escalation in the East China Sea. This scenario must be avoided at all costs, and Washington should be clear that it will unilaterally sanction any party that cuts diplomatic ties. Longer term, the United States could seek to arbitrate a division of resources around the Senkakus or the creation of Berger’s “ritualized system.” Such proposals could take years of careful diplomatic preparation, since they would seem to thwart China’s designs. Still, as Churchill said, “jaw-jaw” is always better than “war-war.”
Thomas Berger joined the Department of International Relations in 2001. Previously, he taught for seven years at the Johns Hopkins Department of Political Science in Baltimore. He is the author of War, Guilt and World Politics After World War II, Cultures of Antimilitarism: National Security in Germany and Japan and is co-editor of Japan in International Politics: Beyond the Reactive State. You can read more about him here.