Najam, Yusuf Policy Forecasts Published by Jinnah Institute
Adil Najam, Dean of the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, published a recent policy forecast discussing how climate change will continue to affect Pakistan in 2017 and what needs to be done locally in Pakistan to combat the global phenomenon of climate change. Najam’s policy forecast was part of a survey of
Najam’s policy forecast on climate change was published by the Jinnah Institute, a public policy think tank based in Islamabad, Pakistan, on January 26, 2017.
From the text of the policy forecast:
2016 was the warmest year globally in recorded history. Eleven of the last twelve months set new global high-temperature records. It was the 31st consecutive year that was warmer than average. In 2017, Pakistan will continue to be among the places that will see the collective impact of our global neglect. 2016 saw both floods and drought in Pakistan. Expect at least one, possibly more, climate calamities in 2017.
The climate surprise for Pakistan in 2017 will not be that there will be climate catastrophes. The surprise will be that we will still be found surprised and unprepared in its face. We are clearly intensifying its impacts through man-made global climate change; in Pakistan, we are further aggravating these impacts by our callous disregard for actions that are needed at the local level. A disregard made worse by chronic bad local governance. Climate change is a global phenomenon. But the response to its impact in developing countries like Pakistan has to be local. Flash floods in Gilgit-Baltistan, heat waves in Karachi and droughts in Thar are not just natural disasters, and construing them as such would be a gross mistake. They are all made worse by our bad management of them. Weather cannot be avoided, but its impacts can be managed. They are best managed locally.
Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Associate Vice President Asia Centre at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and Pardee School alumnus (MAIR), also had a policy forecast published by the Jinnah Institute on national security and counter-terrorism.
From the text of the policy forecast:
Two phases are critical in defeating major insurgencies and terrorist threats: bringing the insurgency from its peak to manageable levels of violence; and moving from this point to sustainable peace. Pakistan has completed the first of these, but through a military-heavy approach. It now faces the daunting challenge of achieving the second, where the military is irrelevant beyond its role in preventing the insurgency’s resurgence. The future lies in civilian CT and CVE efforts – in the National Action Plan’s success that is.
The Pakistani state will have a hard time delivering adequately in this phase for two reasons. First, the civilian sector is simply not prepared to address this inherently complex problem in a coordinated manner. Doing so requires a clear chain of command, a strong civilian law enforcement operating without contradictory pressures that prevent it from doing its job, and a broader apparatus able to address the governance and service delivery issues that create fertile ground for violence. Civilian institutions remain weak, both because of lack of political will to strengthen them over the years, and the deep-rooted tensions between the relevant institutions, most prominent of which is the civil-military divide. Second, Pakistan’s domestic stability is intrinsically linked to regional peace. The more troubled Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours, the tougher Pakistan’s challenge to isolate their fallout from domestic security dynamics. Hardly ever have Pakistan’s ties with every neighbour except China been as damaged as they are today. This is unlikely to change in 2017. While a sudden resurgence in terror-related violence in unlikely, terrorists still retain the ability to strike from time to time. And fresh threats like Daesh loom on the horizon. 2017 then, promises to bring uneasy peace, but one that will be broken by periodic episodes of violence of varying intensity. Much work remains before we can confidently claim to be nearing sustainable peace.
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Adil Najam is the inaugural dean of the Pardee School and is the former Vice Chancellor of the Lahore University of Management Sciences in Lahore, Pakistan. Learn more about him here.