Populism Brought Down? The Marcos-Duterte Struggle in Philippine Politics

Speaker: Mark R. Thompson/ In a world where illiberal populist leaders appear more influential and invulnerable than ever, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.'s attempt to bring down the Duterte dynasty seems exceptional. Employing hyper-presidentialist powers, he has hounded estranged Vice President Sara Duterte (who was impeached by the House of Representatives in early February) and her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte (saying he may allow the elder Duterte’s extradition to the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes committed during the brutal “war on drugs”). Marcos-backed senatorial candidates also dominate opinion polling for the May midterm elections. In response, VP Duterte has escalated her father’s scathing critiques of the Marcos administration while trying to mitigate the misogynist Duterte brand. She also leads in early surveys for the 2028 presidential election and has garnered a huge social media following. This suggests that a strongman, or a strongwoman, attempting to avoid accountability can be checked by an opponent wielding state power. Yet it also demonstrates the difficulty of defeating an illiberal populist when a genuine reformist alternative is lacking./ Mark R. Thompson is chair professor in the Department of Public and International Affairs and, from 2011 to 2024, was director of the Southeast Asia Research Centre, City University of Hong Kong. He was also president of the Hong Kong Political Science Association from 2018 to 2020. In 2008-2009 he was Lee Kong Chian Distinguished Fellow at Stanford University as wll as the National University of Singapore and held a research fellowship at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University in 2024. His current Southeast Asia-focused research concentrates on opposition to autocratization, authoritarian nostalgia, populism, presidentialism, and women dynastic leaders. According to the 2024 Stanford/Elsevier rankings, he is among the world’s top 2% most-cited scientists in the subfield of “Political Science & Public Administration”. The author or editor of 11 books and over 150 articles and book chapters, his most recent book is The Philippines: From “People Power” to Democratic Backsliding (Cambridge University Press, 2023).