Development Finance at a Crossroads: Workshop Summary

By Tianyi Wu 

Development finance is at a critical inflection point: many low- and middle-income countries are facing mounting pressures just as traditional donors and creditors are retrenching, even though infrastructure needs and the demand for reliable financing of basic public services remain pressing.

To examine this issue, the GDP Center hosted the “Development Finance at a Crossroads: Lessons and New Directions” mini conference on Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The goal of the event was to create a dedicated space for junior scholars—working across international relations, international and comparative political economy, development studies, public finance and policy—to engage directly with one another and to build a longer-term community around the policies and practice of development finance.

The morning sessions focused on the politics of development finance and Chinese overseas lending.

  • Jyhjong Hwang (Ohio State University), former Global China Research Fellow, presented work on how electoral pressures in African countries shape development finance choices and preferences for foreign development partners.
  • Discussant Dr. Patrick Shea (University of Glasgow) praised the paper’s ambition and encouraged a tighter, more explicit elaboration of the causal mechanisms in its theory of great power competition—clarifying how competitive pressures translate into specific strategies and bargaining dynamics. He also urged the author to better situate and delimit the argument about African states’ bargaining power by specifying where leverage comes from, when it is strongest, and how it shapes negotiation outcomes.
  • Dr. Hong Zhang (Indiana University) and Dr. Keyi Tang (ESADE Business School), former Global China Research Fellow, examined how Chinese overseas lending is often initiated by Chinese , both with and without state backgrounds, who possess granular knowledge of project environments.
  • Dr. Matthew Erie comments on the novel empirical finding. The work is an important contribution to the study of the IPE of China’s global economic footprint through the lens of corporate lending practices. This work adds to the growing literature that disaggregates the Chinese party-state and its overseas influence. Authors are encouraged to sharpen the theoretical contribution particularly on whether the logics of market entry and business consolidation are truly mutually exclusive and whether Chinese contractors’ practices differ from non-Chinese ones.
  • Dr. Tianyi Wu (Oxford University), Global China Research Fellow, presented on transnational state–business alliances in Chinese overseas lending, highlighting how institutional and commercial incentives intersect in shaping project design and implementation.

Conference participants in the room encouraged the paper’s conceptual move, treating transnational alliances as arenas in which both Chinese and African actors exercise agency, as conceptual and empirically novel. They also encouraged follow-on work to sharpen what “transnational” means in practice and what, exactly, is distinctive about these networks relative to other lending environments. 

From left: Dr. Tianyi Wu, Dr. Jhyjong Hwang and Avi Ahuja

A lunch intercession provided time for networking and informal conversations about research trajectories and career development, followed by two afternoon panels. In the second panel, participants examined several facets of contemporary international political economy of sovereign debt, with particular attention to how governance structures, information constraints, and relationship-based leverage shape state behavior and bargaining outcomes.

  • Dr. Aditi Sahasrabuddhe (Brown University) offered an account of governance fragmentation and highlighted the limits of financial statecraft when viewed from the vantage point of the Global South. Her remarks emphasized how overlapping institutions and uneven authority can dilute policy tools that are often assumed to be decisive in great-power competition.
  • Dr. Zenobia Chan commended the paper’s careful empirical design while also highlighting important methodological considerations. In particular, she drew attention to potential concerns about endogeneity and the exclusion restriction underlying the model, and she encouraged the author to clarify the identifying assumptions and strengthen the accompanying robustness checks. Her intervention was especially valuable in pointing to practical ways the analysis could become even more persuasive and transparent to readers.
  • Chong Wang (University of Western Ontario) explored hidden debt and endogenous sovereign debt disclosure under conditions of information asymmetry.
  • Dr. Keren Zhu (Davidson College) commented on Wang’s paper and underscored how debt functions beyond simply a financial maneuver, but as a means of coalition-building linking developing-country politicians and Chinese actors. Her intervention highlighted the political uses of opacity and the distributional stakes embedded in disclosure decisions.
  • Dr. Tomoko Takahashi (Kyoto University) presented work on relational ties with economic partners as assets in negotiation, including evidence of how such ties can influence bilateral trade behavior within the institutional setting of the WTO. Her talk emphasized that relationships can operate like resources—shaping credibility, expectations, and bargaining room in rule-governed environments.
  • Dr. Margaret Pearson (University of Maryland) commented on Takahashi’s contribution and encouraged further conceptual refinement of “relational assets,” valuable resources you get from having a relationship with another actor, especially by clarifying how they operate inside multilateral institutions and specifying the observable behaviors (e.g., patterns of support, restraint, bargaining positions, or sequencing of concessions) that would indicate relational assets at work.

The final panel turned to international financial institutions and sovereign borrowing.

  • Anthony Luongo (Emory University) presented research on how small states can exercise outsized influence through the International Monetary Fund Executive Board, showing how institutional access, procedural participation, and agenda-setting opportunities can translate into meaningful leverage even for countries with limited material power.
  • Dr. Cleo O’Brien-Udry (University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign) noted that the proposed theory hinges on public perceptions of the IMF’s legitimacy and raised the possibility that having national leaders hold executive positions at the Fund might, in some contexts, undermine rather than bolster that legitimacy.
  • Avi Ahuja (New York University) presented work on how Developing countries that have traditionally relied on foreign aid from Western donors to support government budgets choose substitutes when aid becomes less abundant. They theorize that politicians face threats to political survival when they lose access to foreign aid and prioritize financing substitutes with higher political benefits at the expense of high financial costs.
  • Dr. Kevin P. Gallagher and Dr. Alexandra Zeitz offered supportive commentary, commending the paper’s strong theoretical intuition and policy relevance, and highlighting its value in bringing political survival dynamics into conversation with debates on aid retrenchment, lender competition, and the evolving landscape of sovereign finance. They advice authors’ attention on the alternative options of taxation and private finance beyond debt instrument as games of consideration for generating testable implications about which substitutes governments choose, under what conditions, and with what political and fiscal consequences.
  • Mengfan Cheng (New York University) presented on how electoral cycles affect sovereign borrowing, particularly how impending elections can encourage governments to turn to bond markets.
  • As the discussant, Dr. Cameron Ballard-Rosa (University of North Carolina) suggested that Cheng’s analysis would benefit from clearer specification of actors’ preferences and utility functions, as well as greater attention to how publics hold governments accountable for service provision rather than for borrowing per se.

As an inaugural mini conference, “Development Finance at a Crossroads” aimed to act as a starting point for a more coherent intellectual and professional space around development finance research. The day’s presentations and discussions underscored both the complexity and urgency of current challenges, while also pointing toward productive future directions—whether in the form of novel publications or simply through stronger networks and collaborations among the attending scholars.

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