To End Coal, Adapt to Regional Realities

To achieve the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, global coal use needs to be cut by 30 to 70 percent by 2030. Action has been slow though, with some industrial countries placing coal phase-out high on their political agendas, while most low- and middle-income countries still regard coal as essential for economic growth. 

While urgent, targeted action is needed to shift the trajectory, a global phase-down will not happen unless the global community targets support to suit national political realities.

In a new commentary article published in Nature, a team of international researchers, including  Cecilia Springer, grouped economies into four coal-using categories to identify the most useful policies for a global end to coal, based on detailed case studies on 15 key countries from 2018-2020.

Main findings:

• All economies that have, or are planning to build, coal-fired power plants can be grouped into these four categories:
  • Phase-out regions, like Chile, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, have at least one retired plant since 2000, less capacity under construction than is currently operating and no planned power plants beyond what is currently under construction. 
  • Established coal users, such as China, India and Turkey, have new capacity planned or under construction, operate capacity at least equal to pipeline and have a retired capacity less than operating capacity.
  • Phase-in countries, like Vietnam, where the coal pipeline is greater than operating capacity.
  • Export-oriented regions, including Australia, Colombia, Indonesia and South Africa have highly diverse socio-economic realities, but share an average coal production at least 1.5 times higher than their consumption. 
• Each category has distinct political challenges that need specific policy priorities to spur change in the most effective way. 
  • In phase-out economies, accelerating the transitions would both cut emissions and spur innovation and will require national support for research and diffusion of clean energy, such as price guarantees for clean-energy producers. Coal subsidies should be phased out and channeled to low-carbon energy industries. 
  • Policies for established users should focus on reforms that check vested interests and corruption, reduce state control over the energy sector and level the playing field for alternative energy systems. These countries also need to develop alternative economies, like investing in infrastructure and retraining the labor force to support manufacturing or information services.
  • Hindered by high capital costs for renewable power plants, high investment risks and often skeptical decision-makers, phase-in nations can lower barriers through  international finance and proof-of-concept projects. 

A rapid, smooth and just power transition from coal is possible, but only if the global community targets policies for local conditions. The policies that work for one won’t necessarily work for another and participation from every group is important. Although China comprises nearly half of existing and planned coal capacities, if all the phase-in countries continue to embrace coal, their aggregate emissions could surpass those of China. For example, the emissions from coal plants already planned or under way in these countries will exceed those of all coal plants that currently operate in India. 

In all, the authors argue international cooperation is crucial for economies in every category and the elements for the required international cooperation are already in place.