Chart of the Week: Comparing Global Vaccination Rates with Populations

As a recent policy brief by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center shows, more must be done to ensure a rapid, equitable and global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.

Vaccine rollout is underway in every region of the world. 500 million doses have been given worldwide, with almost 100 million people fully vaccinated. Perhaps optimistically, vaccine producers are hoping to supply 12.5 billion doses by the end of 2021. The United States, which so far has not had the best track record of handling the pandemic, is on pace to vaccinate the majority of Americans by the summer of 2021. And Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Chile have embarked on even more successful vaccination programs.

While the increased pace of vaccinations is laudable, the distribution has been less than equitable globally. Developed countries, which account for just over ten percent of the global population, have pre-purchased more than 60 percent of the doses pledged by 2021. Switzerland – with a population of 8.5 million – has reserved 27.5 million doses. The US, EU and UK have delivered 50 percent of total global vaccinations so far, despite making up only 10.8 percent of the global population, while African countries make up only 2.1 percent of vaccinations so far, with 17.2 percent of the global population.

Source: Gallogly-Swan, Thrasher, Ömer 2021

The COVAX Facility, the World Health Organization’s current strategy for equitable vaccine access, is seeking to vaccinate 20 percent of developing country populations by the end of 2021, but currently only has one-third of the funding it needs. In addition to large-scale distribution inequities, vaccine manufacturers are simply not producing sufficient vaccines to stem transmission enough to end the pandemic. Without seeking new avenues for regional production of vaccines that suit the transport and storage facilities in developing countries, it is unlikely that enough people will be vaccinated there to prevent cycles of mutation, resistance and reinfection.

India and South Africa initiated a proposal in October 2020 to temporarily suspend certain provisions of the World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS Agreement) for products related to COVID-19, including vaccines. What began with a handful of nations has now reached a majority, with 57 national sponsors of the proposal, and over 60 WTO members in support of the TRIPS waiver.

The undergirding rationale for this TRIPS waiver, is that temporarily waiving the commitment to protect pharmaceutical intellectual property will allow countries to mobilize generic drug and vaccine producers to manufacture these products without the threat of domestic lawsuits or complaints at the WTO. This has become especially important in the context of vaccines, given the mismatch between global demand and supply and the huge distributional inequality.