Photo courtesy of Martin Thomas Photography / Alamy Stock Photo

Athletics

POV: Baseball Needs to Shake Up the Game—or Risk a Slow Death

Speeding up the games and making bases bigger are nice tweaks, but MLB needs its version of the NBA’s three-point shot to win new fans

The 2024 season will be telling for Major League Baseball. The league claims record revenue is proof that baseball is alive and well. Yet exorbitant ticket prices and stratospheric salary deals are stressing existing business models. Fan attendance and TV viewership is waning. Rule changes to speed up the game and elevate scoring, first enacted last season, may reverse the slide—or, more likely, signal the need for even more radical measures.

Baseball’s days as America’s pastime are long gone. Football is the top-watched sport by US adults, with baseball and basketball vying for distant second place. In a recent Gallup poll, 41 percent of respondents named football as their top choice, followed by baseball and basketball, only earning about 10 percent. And while older adults (65 and up) remain loyal to baseball, young adults increasingly pick basketball and soccer as their first choice, with baseball and ice hockey garnering less interest.

Ticket prices also continue to increase faster than inflation, pricing out more fans. The average MLB ticket is over $140, with the LA Dodgers winning the prize for most expensive ($209), followed by New York Yankees ($186) and your Boston Red Sox ($170). These prices don’t include the rising cost of ballpark hot dogs, beer, peanuts, or parking.

Fans in the seats and TV viewership are central to baseball economics—and the trend is not promising. Last season, 70 million fans attended games, 9 million less than in 2007. Storied franchises, such as the Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and Red Sox, all “fan-peaked” more than 15 years ago. TV viewership is also down. The 2023 World Series was the least watched on record, with viewership under 10 million, a staggering 23 percent drop from the prior season. In stark contrast, the NCAA Women’s March Madness final captured an audience topping 15 million. Baseball may have a long and storied history, but that hardly secures its future.

Post COVID, ballpark attendance is up, but still well below highs. Attendance rose in 2023 by 9 percent, but not universally. The San Francisco Giants and the Red Sox saw only 1 to 2 percent fan increase, while the Baltimore Orioles saw a 36 percent rise. Part of the variation in stadium attendance can be attributed to team performance, but this doesn’t solve the longer-term shrinking fan base problem.

Look around and you’ll see baseball parks awash in empty seats. The “field of dreams” strategy—build it and they will come—has proven problematic. All 30 US ballparks, from smaller and historic to bigger and newer, have excess capacity, unsold seats, representing billions in lost revenue. Each season, teams play 81 home games. Last year, the Red Sox had almost 5,000 unsold seats per game, costing over $66 million in lost revenue. The Chicago Cubs had over 7,000 per game, costing over $80 million. These historic parks have seating capacity ranging from about 38,000 to 42,000. The larger Dodger Stadium stands at 56,000—yet, despite a strong season, it had about 9,000 unsold seats per game, costing over $152 million in lost revenue. The Oakland Coliseum, at almost 57,000, stands out as a financial albatross, averaging under 10,000 fans per game. This negative trend has continued into 2024.

More baffling is that MLB is trying to grow the franchise while the data don’t support it. In a risky decision, MLB has announced it will expand from 30 to 32 teams, targeting smaller, second-tier cities, while old franchises with proven brands in Boston, Chicago, and the Bay Area are unable to attract and keep fans.

So, where is the money coming from? Despite a shrinking fan base and TV viewership, and plenty of unsold seats, last season MLB earned record revenue of $11.6 billion, or an average of $387 million per team. Ticket sales contributed one-third of revenue and the rest was generated through broadcasting rights, merchandise sales, and sponsorships.

The league and owners are waking up and attempting to reverse the fan slide. There is also an understanding that growth depends on cultivating 15-year-olds, not 65-year-olds. Back in 2015, under Commissioner Rob Manfred, efforts were made to promote Pitch, Hit & Run programs, including Wiffle ball, nationwide. In 2023, over 16 million youth above the age of six played baseball at least once. Clear obstacles remain as youths are increasingly picking single-sport specialization over the benefits from playing multiple sports. If baseball can’t make the first-choice list, as recent surveys have demonstrated, winning this crucial fan base will be difficult.

Changing long-standing league rules might help, but how much? Last season, several new rule changes aimed at speeding up the game and generating more action were implemented. Pitch-clock changes reduced average game time by 20 percent, from a 2021 high of 3 hours and 10 minutes to only 2 hours and 40 minutes. Banning an infield shift to open up hitting more and enlarging bases put more runners in better scoring positions and led to increased runs. This season, other rule changes have been added, including decreasing allowed mound visits by a coach, to continue speeding up the overall game.

Even with changes like these, more are needed and some might have to be drastic.

MLB has been in test mode with robot umpiring long enough. This is an area I have studied, and conducted research and written extensively on. They need to get off the fence, embrace proven technology, and implement it behind home plate. Doing so would speed up play, greatly improve pitch-calling accuracy, and increase fan interest.

MLB can learn from other professional sports, such as the NFL and NBA, which when challenged made radical changes that have proven successful in helping to sustain and grow their audience.

In 1974, the NFL moved the goalposts to the back of the end zone, forcing teams to play for touchdowns over lower-risk field goals. This adjustment also opened the end zone for added passing, energizing play. 

The NBA moment to make radical change occurred in 1979 when it introduced the three-point shot. Seven years later it was adopted by the NCAA. The benefits of this decision are still being felt today. 

The MLB needs to find its own “goalpost move” or “three-point shot.” One idea could include limiting how many pitchers a team could use in a single game. Requiring hurlers to throw more innings and go deeper in their pitch count would introduce greater uncertainty and put more pressure on managers’ decisions.

Or what about changing how home runs are scored? Now that distance metrics are available, long, eye-popping homeruns, traveling over 400 feet, could earn a two-run value. This same rule change could also be extended to the rare inside-the-park home run, encouraging more risks when a runner rounds third base. Another radical idea is awarding one run for the defense play that accomplishes the uncommon but memorable triple play. Making any of these changes would liven up the game, influence win strategies, and garner greater fan interest.

MLB is not going to fold anytime soon, but the growth-at-all-costs approach and ignoring its audience is undermining its longer-term appeal. 

The league and owners need to find new ways to shake things up, attract, expand, and grow their fan base. They will be challenged to secure a bright future if they stick to making rule changes around the edges without livening up the game on the field. The NFL and NBA did it. It’s MLB’s turn.

Mark Williams is a lecturer in finance at Boston University Questrom School of Business; he writes on sports and economics and is immediate past president of the Boston Economic Club. He can be reached at williams@bu.edu.

“POV” is an opinion page that provides timely commentaries from students, faculty, and staff on a variety of issues: on-campus, local, state, national, or international. Anyone interested in submitting a piece, which should be about 700 words long, should contact John O’Rourke at orourkej@bu.edu. BU Today reserves the right to reject or edit submissions. The views expressed are solely those of the author and are not intended to represent the views of Boston University.