Is Trump’s Indictment Good for Democracy?
BU faculty experts say there is plenty of peril for Trump, the media, the country; it’s a sign that “things are working,” but also “scary”
Former President Donald Trump speaking at a campaign event in South Carolina Statehouse in January. Trump’s indictment in New York threatens a host of consequences for him and the nation. AP File Photo by Alex Brandon
Is Trump’s Indictment Good for Democracy?
BU faculty experts say there is plenty of peril for Trump, the media, the country; it’s a sign that “things are working,” but also “scary”
Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in New York on Tuesday facing a grand jury indictment over hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign to cover up their brief affair years earlier.
The indictment of a former president is a first in US history—historic in itself. But what will it mean for his 2024 presidential campaign? For his Republican rivals? His MAGA army of supporters? And the general election? Will it affect other, perhaps more substantial cases building against him over election tampering, the January 6 insurrection, and his handling of top secret materials? And how will the media handle the story?
With so many questions raised by the unprecedented action, we asked Boston University faculty experts in law, history, political science, and the media to help assess the fallout.
Andrew David (CAS’05, GRS’18) is a College of General Studies lecturer in social science and will teach HI283: The History of the Modern Presidency this summer for the CAS history department. Jed Handelsman Shugerman is a School of Law visiting professor and a professor at Fordham School of Law, who wrote about Trump investigations and impeachments for the New York Times, Washington Post, and others. Tammy Vigil is a College of Communication associate professor of media science and senior associate dean whose research interests include political campaigns. Thomas J. Whalen is a College of General Studies associate professor of social sciences whose research focuses include modern American history and presidential leadership. Wesley Wildman is a professor of philosophy, theology, and ethics and of computing and data sciences, who splits his time between the School of Theology and the Faculty of Computing & Data Sciences.“People should keep an open mind until the indictment is revealed and continue to keep an open mind after,” Shugerman says, “because everyone is innocent until proven guilty.”
Q&A
with David, Shugerman, Vigil, Whalen, and Wildman
BU Today: Is this indictment good or bad for our democracy and why?
David: Both. Because on one hand, you want your leaders to be held accountable to the rule of law just like everyone else. This is a sign that things are working. On the other hand, the unprecedented nature of this is scary to a certain extent. It is interesting how close other former presidents have perhaps gotten to this line, but we’ve never gone over it—and what that looks like going forward does raise a host of questions.
Shugerman: It is too soon to know, because we don’t have any information about what’s actually in the indictment. But if some of the questions that have been floated already bear out as problems, I’m worried that this will be bad for the rule of law. As someone who has written about the case for indicting Trump for incitement and insurrection for January 6, I’m worried that this weaker and much more stale case—it goes back seven years—would undermine and delegitimize the more important prosecutions that should be brought. If it is revealed to be a weak case on the facts and the law, then it could be framed as more of a partisan, politically motivated prosecution, and that could taint future prosecutions in that light.
Vigil: The indictment is good for democracy in that it demonstrates that no one is above the law. Equal treatment under the law is a basic tenant of democratic ideals, and one we historically have not always upheld.
Whalen: It really depends. On the one hand, it proves that no one, including a former and potential future president of the United States, is above the law. On the other hand, it sends a bad signal to our friends and enemies throughout the world that our form of governance is in peril, especially with the indictee in question threatening “death and destruction” upon the rule of law. You expect that kind of toxic rhetoric from a tyrant, not someone who served in the Oval Office.
BU Today: Is the indictment good or bad for Trump’s political future? And is there any chance he’ll end up behind bars?
David: I think this is going to cause a lot of Republicans to potentially either use this as an excuse to perhaps lessen their support for Trump or maybe consider what exactly this means, to have a nominee who is being accused of this, a nominee who has a mugshot. That’s going to be, again, unprecedented. And what’s it gonna look like in a potential presidential campaign when the president has to get off the campaign trail for court dates or has the places they can go limited by a judge?
Shugerman: I think there’s no chance of him behind bars. I think a trial judge would opt for a sort of supervised house arrest, or a fine. I think that Biden would at least commute the sentence to avoid any jail time. And that would be right. No matter what he’s convicted of, I think it’d be the right move for the president to commute the sentence to avoid him being behind bars. I think that would be not good for democracy.
Vigil: The indictment won’t affect his support among the most ardent Trumpers. However, it might convince people who are less devoted to him to look at other candidates. The current response by Republican leadership indicates they are waiting to see how things play out.
Whalen: The indictment might very well seal the deal when it comes to Trump securing the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. He will undoubtedly portray himself as a combination of Sir Thomas More and Joan of Arc—a political martyr—and that will resonate well with his party’s base, whether he’s ultimately behind bars or not.
BU Today: What does it do to the presidential race, including his primary opponents like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? And if Trump’s the GOP nominee, how might it affect the general election?
Vigil: The other Republicans in the race or planning a run have to be very careful at this point, and we see DeSantis doing exactly that. They can’t abandon Trump completely because they want to try to gain the support of his base of devotees. However, they also don’t want to seem too ardent in their support for him, either. Their best bet is to attack the Democrats and the process, but they should not be too vocal there, either.
Whalen: The outcome of the general election will turn on the attitudes of independent voters and those not embracing the MAGA banner, which is to say the majority of the country. This is where the indictment may very well prevent Trump from having a second term.
BU Today: Washington is already hobbled by division in Congress. How will this affect it?
Whalen: Can you say dumpster fire? Just when you thought things couldn’t get any more dysfunctional on Capitol Hill, Trump is indicted, or “INDICATED,” as he claims on his social media site. Look for even less getting accomplished, including a raising of the debt ceiling. If that comes to pass, kiss the economy goodbye.
BU Today: Given how Trump polarizes Americans, is this going to change anyone’s opinion of him?
David: I think we are too quick to perhaps write off the fact that people can change their minds and I think there will be some Republicans who say, “Well, I still may never vote for a Democrat, but I am going to look for another Republican. I’m now gonna throw my support behind someone else, because this is too far.”
Vigil: Very few people’s opinions of Trump will change because of this, but the few it does might matter greatly in key states.
BU Today: Neither side thinks the media did a good job covering Trump. What are the dangers for the media now, including the conservative media? Is there an upside for anyone other than increased ratings?
Vigil: There is pressure to cover things quickly, which is not conducive to accurate reporting. The number of leaks and unofficial sources providing commentary pressures reporters to share information before it is fully vetted. Trump has continued to insert his own “read” of the situation into the news stream, adding unverified, false, or misleading information into the mix—and, as the focus of the investigation and a former president, his comments are considered newsworthy and given more attention than misleading information should be. Even critical reports about his comments amplify the reach of their content. It is difficult for journalists to do their jobs effectively in this kind of environment.
The dangers for the media include moving too quickly to report on the story. The frenzy to report means false and misleading information can easily and quickly spread. Second, when corrections are inevitably made, the journalists are accused of spreading “fake news” and the credibility of even the most reputable sources is undermined. Neither is good for a functioning democracy.
BU Today: Recently artificial intelligence has been a big story in part for its ability to create deep fakes in images, audio, and video. It seems possible, even likely, that it will be used for propaganda now through social media and other channels. What should people watch out for?
Wildman: AI is known to have been used already for mis- or disinformation campaigns in hundreds of cases, and surely it has been used in many more about which we know nothing. Deep fake technology is coming along extremely quickly. The effect of all of this is that the general public will soon learn that their default view must shift from trusting their senses to NOT trusting their senses when it comes to digital artifacts. This will spur what I call an economy of authenticity, in which businesses will exist precisely to guarantee that digital artifacts are real. Until then, we are all going to be very confused, very often.
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