Brainstorming on Mapping National Futures

To explore the potential of a possible research project on mapping the future options for countries and regions, an exploratory brainstorming exercise was held at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range Future on March 22, 2009, focusing on Pakistan.

The exploratory session was led by the Center Director, Prof. Adil Najam and Pardee Center Research Fellow Moeed Yusuf, and included prominent individuals of Pakistani origin from the Greater Boston Area as well as academics and students from Pakistan currently based in Boston. The goal was to explore the potential of such research and explore how the dimension of national progress over the longer-range future could be studied.

The participants were asked to chart plausible scenarios for Pakistan’s future over the next 20-50 years and to help identify the driving forces that would determine which path the country ends up pursuing. Participants argued that issues of identity, salience of the religious discourse in decision making, macro economy, re-distribution issues, the balance between central authority and devolved powers, the level of participation and activism by the civil society, external influence of events on Pakistan, the future of India and China and Pakistan’s foreign policy choices vis-a-vis these two states, rule of law, and access to justice and social services were amongst the key drivers for Pakistan. The potential scenarios identified ranged from a quasi-democratic, economically viable Pakistan to a balkanization of the state along provincial or even smaller denominations.