Has COVID taught us anything about pandemic preparedness?

Researchers warn that plans to prevent the next global outbreak don’t consider the failures that have fuelled our current predicament.

As nations struggle to control the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists warn that deadly outbreaks of other viruses are inevitable. History is clear on this: more than six distinct influenza pandemics and epidemics have struck in just over a century. Ebola viruses have spilled over from animals about 25 times in the past five decades. And at least seven coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have brought illness and death.

Expecting to avoid another spillover is about as realistic as stopping lightning from sparking a forest fire. “Preventing a pandemic may not be possible, so being prepared is the key,” says Youngmee Jee, chief executive at the Pasteur Institute in South Korea.

Epidemiologists and researchers who specialize in biosecurity and public health have been outlining preparedness plans for at least 20 years. The core components consist broadly of surveillance to detect pathogens; data collection and modelling to see how they spread; improvements to public-health guidance and communication; and the development of therapies and vaccines.

Governments and private funders have poured millions of dollars into building these capabilities. Researchers have painstakingly tested and evaluated these plans to identify and fill gaps. Still, COVID-19 has demonstrated that the world was even less prepared than most had imagined. And what makes some scientists nervous is that current discussions on how to defend against the next pandemic are stuck on the same strategies as before.

“We can’t simply repeat the recipes that failed,” says David Fidler, a global-health policy researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in Washington DC. “People are still talking about doing the same things, and not asking, ‘Why did this all break down?’”