What Issues Will Decide the 2022 Midterm Elections?

Abortion? Inflation? Immigration? Marijuana decriminalization? Student debt? Trump? Biden? BU experts sound off on what might influence voters the most come election day

Collage: (from left to right) Photo of a raging wildfire, marijuana leaves, A protestors holding up a blue sign that reads "keep abortion legal", and a gas station pump showing high gas prices are shown to illustrate some of the issues being debated in the midterms.

Climate change (from left), marijuana decriminalization, abortion rights, and gas prices are four issues that will weigh heavily on voters come November 8. Photos by Matt Palmer (from left), Matthew Brodeur, Gayatri Malhotra, and Yassine Khalfalli, all via Unsplash

Politics

What Issues Will Decide the 2022 Midterm Elections?

Abortion? Inflation? Immigration? Marijuana decriminalization? Student debt? Trump? Biden? BU experts sound off on what might influence voters the most come election day

November 1, 2022

Doug Most

Inflation. Abortion. Immigration. Climate change. Marijuana decriminalization. Student debt. Ukraine. China. Russia. Donald Trump. President Biden.

Any of those hot-topic issues could help shape the results of this year’s midterm elections. It seems like the political pendulum swings in a new direction every day, shifting left toward Democrats one day, pivoting right toward Republicans the next. We asked a number of Boston University faculty experts this question:

What issue or issues do you believe or hope will weigh the heaviest on voters come election day, November 8?

Matthew Motta

School of Public Health assistant professor of health law, policy, and management, and a political scientist

On the one hand, the answer may be “none of the above.” Decades of research from political science have shown that most people who participate in midterm elections are committed partisans. This means that most voters likely made up their minds about who they planned to vote for well before the election started. In today’s hyperpolarized political environment, candidates who represent “the other side” are increasingly unlikely to represent our own preferences. Few Democrats have an incentive to vote for a Republican, and vice versa. The choice, in other words, is made for us well before the campaign begins.

On the other hand, the question of which issues might be pivotal (that is: swing the election) has a more complicated answer. Even if most voters have already made up their minds about who they plan to vote for, some may have yet to do so. The key to answering this question is to first identify which groups are the most likely to be undecided about who they plan to vote for—and then determine where that group stands on major policy issues of the day. White women who live in the suburbs, for example, were a key group that swung from Republicans to Democrats in the 2020 presidential election, and some polls suggest [they] may be more likely to be undecided heading into 2022. Consequently, although most Americans rate economic concerns as their top policy priority, objections to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade are particularly important to this voting bloc, and may shape how they vote in the midterms.

Shauna Shames

College of Arts & Sciences visiting associate professor of political science

The midterm elections this year may seem a mess unless you can find some through lines to make sense of the issue chaos. We are trying to decide, as a large, diverse, and divided polity, what we want our government to be and do. In terms of our place in an uncertain world, should it be protecting our borders and ensuring American shorter-term economic interests (immigration, energy prices, inflation)? Or joining with other countries to protect human rights and the ideas of democracy and international cooperation (Russia’s war on Ukraine, climate change, and environmental issues)? Partisan cleavages line up pretty well with those differing priorities.

On the domestic front, is our job as a political community to protect the “law-abiding,” including those who follow traditional views (strictures?) on gender rules and roles, including reproduction? Or do we want a government which takes as its job the enabling of a large range of choices in terms of lifestyle, sexuality, gender identity, pregnancy, and children and attempts to create some kind of equality between people in terms of these choices and challenges? (Marijuana for personal use fits in there, too, as well as an attempt to undo decades of racially biased policing and imprisonment.)

Public opinion is not as unstable as it looks. And it generally favors the progressives on a lot of these issues and through lines when framed in these big-picture and longer-term ways of thinking. But the poll results can be all over the map from day to day because of media and framing effects, question wording, and manipulative emotional appeals, like those based on fear or inaccurate information. Voting may not reflect actual underlying opinion, though, due to low turnout, voter suppression, and political cynicism.

Shawn M. Lynch

College of General Studies lecturer in social sciences

I believe that the most influential issue in this election will be the Roe v. Wade decision. I believe that it is so important that Democrats will hold the House of Representatives and expand their majority of the Senate. (Some may say I am too optimistic, which I understand.) I believe that the polling does not tell the whole story, as so many different types of voters—the poor, the young, people of color—are never polled accurately enough, and these are the types of voters who may well be driven to vote by anger over the Roe v. Wade reversal.

We have already seen the tremendous suffering this decision has brought to women all across the country. This backwards and savage decision by an illegitimate court stuffed with perjurers and liars who should all be impeached and removed has done nothing but cause pain and suffering, and there are many, many people who will see that as reason to vote against Republicans. I must emphasize vote against, because, although President Biden has gotten some important legislation passed after much public dispute, Democratic messaging has always been unbelievably incompetent and weak.

So, while some voters will vote for Democrats, I believe that many more will vote against Republicans. And I believe that the polling will not give an accurate picture up until Election Day. I further believe that the anti-Republican momentum can be enough to deny them the House, which is imperative. The Republican Party today is no more than saboteurs devoted to a madman criminal that sold us out to Russia and Saudi Arabia, and who will likely die of old age in prison, unless he flees into exile. They have tied their wagon to a corrupt and degenerate star, and this has done nothing but damage our society and our republic. I understand why people may think Republicans will take the House, and they may. In the end, however, I believe the Roe decision will drive anti-Republicans to the polls in greater numbers than pro-Republicans.

Virginia Sapiro

CAS professor emerita of political science and dean emerita of Arts & Sciences

One fact must guide any discussion of the role of issues in elections: most voters do not choose their candidate on the basis of issues. Perhaps surprisingly, large numbers of voters pick their issue stands on the basis of which party they are inclined to support in the first place, and where the leaders of those parties stand and what they emphasize.

Partisanship—our sense of affiliation with, or belonging to, a political party—is a deeply held inclination that builds up over many years, even through childhood. People don’t change partisanship easily. In election after election we see that the vast majority of Democrats vote Democratic, the vast majority of Republicans vote Republican. When you ask them why they voted as they did, if they don’t just mention their party, their answers will reflect what the leaders have been pushing as their issues.

But issues and policies can help determine whether voters feel energized enough to go vote. It is clear that Democratic women feel especially mobilized to vote because of abortion. So differential turnout can be affected by issue questions—who will vote and who will stay home?

That leaves nonaligned people—Independents, plus brand-new voters. Although least likely to vote in the first place, they are most likely to be swayed by short-term forces, including current policy problems. Young voters, especially women, are being mobilized by abortion politics. But don’t get the idea that they are all drawn in progressive or liberal directions. The right-wing white ethno-nationalist movement is also fueled by young people, especially young men.

One of the biggest questions is how many Republicans will follow the dominant trend of their leadership to right-wing extremism, and how many, still attached to more traditional conservative politics, are joining the Cheneys and Kinzingers of their party, intent on wrenching their party back to its moorings, even at the risk of losing elections this year.

Rick Reibstein

CAS lecturer in earth and environment

I do wish that the rise of fascism—our own violent insurrectionists pumped up with delusional anger fed by conservative money, so like the alliance between business and brown and black shirts in pre-WWII Germany and Italy and its mirror in the state violence of Putin and the strongman politics of China’s Xi Jinping, along with too many other harmful assertions in too many places—[will] weigh most heavily on voters. And that people could clearly see that the Democrats remain patriotically faithful to law, process, and reason while the Republicans have kowtowed to authoritarian Trump, scorched-earth politics, a rhetoric of cultural war, and an abandonment of reason and fact.

I wish people saw this as a worldwide event in which each human is asked to make a choice: for democracy and freedom, or totalitarianism? This choice used to be clear to Americans, and I hope they will see that it is before them again at this moment. Had Americans sided with the pro-German politicians before World War II, we would not likely be as much of a free country now as we are. Siding with the party that is still loyal to Trump will harm the unity with Europe we need right now to resist Putin, and we could lose the world war he has launched.

We will lose everything if we vote for the party that demands party loyalty rather than national loyalty, and the party that regards opponents as enemies. Unfortunately, too many have swallowed propaganda that convinces them that the rising respect for minorities threatens their position. It only threatens inappropriate favoritism, not one’s way of life, or beliefs, or sense of self. Fortunately, it is always possible even for frightened people to be helped out of misapprehension and to see things as they really are. I don’t know which way it will go, but I do know that it could go the right way if we can reach those who have not really thought these things through and have been led to be mistrustful and afraid of what they see as liberal ideas or trends.

Thomas Whalen

CGS associate professor of social sciences

It’s the economy, stupid. That’s what will determine whether Congress will have a distinctly red or blue hue over the next two years. But the issue that should matter is democracy. We are currently poised at a knife’s edge as a nation. Former President Donald Trump and his unhinged radical supporters have taken on a decidedly authoritarian character and threaten to overturn our democratic institutions, especially free elections, with their unambiguous embrace of conspiracy theories, disinformation, and violence. If you blink, you might think you are in the last sad days of the Weimar Republic in the early 1930s. Founding Father John Adams once claimed that democracies never last very long and have the unfortunate tendency of destroying themselves. This election cycle will go a long way in determining whether Adams was right.

Heaven help us.

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Leave it to academia to get it wrong once again …

The last person to comment gets it right – The Economy is THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE on voters minds, and that one goes against the Ds VERY hard as they’ve jammed through a socialist agenda in the past 20+ months that has driven us straight into an inflationary mess .. far too much governmental spending on partisan ideas – we ALL want to be greener, but the answer ISN’T to stop all fossil fuels and especially before the grids are strengthened .. pronouns are important – but much less so if you can’t feed your family because groceries are off the page expensive, and with interest rates doubling, the American dream of homeownership is fluttering away from many .. the economy is NUMBER ONE.

Crime, and the wildly increasing rates, is NUMBER TWO – and NONE of your interviewees even mentioned it .. people WANT to feel safe in their homes/communities/work places/etc AND THEY DON’T .. and this too, bends away from the Ds as they’ve oddly shifted towards obsessing on the rights of the perpetrators of crime as opposed to the victims .. this is leaving FAR too many ‘bloodied up individuals’ looking for answers than politicians can answer – these bail reforms HAVEN’T worked, the weak on crime stance is a failure, and ‘defunding police’ is this century’s most bizarre chant

THIRD is illegal immigration .. the FLOOD of illegal immigrants that have entered this country in 20 months is roughly equal to the ENTIRE POPULATION of several western states COMBINED .. and it’s NOT WEAKENING .. this is a HUGE issue, and ignoring it/hiding the effects/blaming it away on others ISN’T gonna solve the problem .. politicians are inept – this isn’t news, but voters WANT this fixed and they just keep dodging .. and by the way, this issue also breaks hard away from the Ds

There will be a red wave this year and the above tells you why .. abortion IS an important matter, climate change is meaningful, and people do care about social justice .. BUT, the economy, crime and illegal immigration will drive the results

Happy trails,

Link

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There are 5 comments on What Issues Will Decide the 2022 Midterm Elections?

Greg

November 2, 2022 at 5:47 am

Leave it to academia to get it wrong once again …

The last person to comment gets it right – The Economy is THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE on voters minds, and that one goes against the Ds VERY hard as they’ve jammed through a socialist agenda in the past 20+ months that has driven us straight into an inflationary mess .. far too much governmental spending on partisan ideas – we ALL want to be greener, but the answer ISN’T to stop all fossil fuels and especially before the grids are strengthened .. pronouns are important – but much less so if you can’t feed your family because groceries are off the page expensive, and with interest rates doubling, the American dream of homeownership is fluttering away from many .. the economy is NUMBER ONE.

Crime, and the wildly increasing rates, is NUMBER TWO – and NONE of your interviewees even mentioned it .. people WANT to feel safe in their homes/communities/work places/etc AND THEY DON’T .. and this too, bends away from the Ds as they’ve oddly shifted towards obsessing on the rights of the perpetrators of crime as opposed to the victims .. this is leaving FAR too many ‘bloodied up individuals’ looking for answers than politicians can answer – these bail reforms HAVEN’T worked, the weak on crime stance is a failure, and ‘defunding police’ is this century’s most bizarre chant

THIRD is illegal immigration .. the FLOOD of illegal immigrants that have entered this country in 20 months is roughly equal to the ENTIRE POPULATION of several western states COMBINED .. and it’s NOT WEAKENING .. this is a HUGE issue, and ignoring it/hiding the effects/blaming it away on others ISN’T gonna solve the problem .. politicians are inept – this isn’t news, but voters WANT this fixed and they just keep dodging .. and by the way, this issue also breaks hard away from the Ds

There will be a red wave this year and the above tells you why .. abortion IS an important matter, climate change is meaningful, and people do care about social justice .. BUT, the economy, crime and illegal immigration will drive the results

Happy trails,


1. Peter
  
  November 8, 2022 at 10:19 am
  
  you don’t speak for the entirety of the United States’ priorities. This was six individual people sharing their own opinions which happened to differ from yours. The economy isn’t the NUMBER ONE issue on my mind either so… that’s just your opinion.
  
  
C

November 2, 2022 at 11:20 am

HAHA unreal! These are professional panderers. It’s the perfect snapshot of how the Dem regime, through its arms journalism & academia, is squandering all credibility and respect.

Did you notice they totally dropped Covid as a talking point?


Elizabeth

November 3, 2022 at 10:43 am

It’s pretty disrespectful to compare a potential Republican-controlled Congress to the Weimar Republic, Nazi Germany, or present-day China. Sorry, but these dreaded pro-life Republican senators aren’t exactly planning on committing a Holocaust or an ethnic cleansing a la Xinjiang. I also find the take that economic issues should take less precedence than ~democracy~ in this election very dismissive. The professors writing this clearly have stable, well-paying jobs, can afford to live in a HCOL area like Boston, and came of age in an era where finding a job was much, much easier. As a college senior, the economy certainly affects me more than vague claims of looming fascism (which I have never experienced despite being a minority woman). Inflation is mocked, but it hits a lot harder when you’re making $15 an hour. And I’m going to be graduating into a job market that was absolutely decimated by recent economic/Covid-related policies. Unless you want to personally find me and every other young adult in my position a well-paying job come May, don’t tell me that partisan hysteria should take precedence over the economy.


1. Luis
  
  November 29, 2022 at 11:30 am
  
  real

Doug Most

Associate Vice President, Executive Editor, Editorial Department Twitter Profile

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What Issues Will Decide the 2022 Midterm Elections?

Abortion? Inflation? Immigration? Marijuana decriminalization? Student debt? Trump? Biden? BU experts sound off on what might influence voters the most come election day

Explore Related Topics:

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