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PARTISAN REVIEW
even this is improbable) it might envisage a reduction of armaments
in a limited zone.
A crisis may arise in Europe if Mr. Khrushchev, through
the
Pankow government, undertakes to blockade West Berlin. This
is
hardly probable at the moment, although the possibility cannot
be
excluded. The situation is more ominous in the Middle East.
There we have an extremely violent revolutionary movement
which will probably result, within a period of years, in forcing
Iraq
and Jordan in,to the so-called Unified State of Egypt and Syria.
rulers of the former two countries are attempting to defend them–
selves through a rival federation. But Nasser, unlike the
rl.<~llICllllU;
sovereigns, is supported by popular enthusiasm. This
is fraught with peril for Israel and the West. Europe will be
pendent on Middle Eastern oil for another generation (unless
Sahara can be exploited on a large scale). What, one wonders,
be the attitude of Nasser's Arab State to Israel? The latter's security
has been based on the superiority of its armed forces over the com–
bined strength of its neighbors. Will this superiority last? And
the West be able to intervene if the Soviets support the Arabs?
Our concern, here, is not to speculate on the various possibilities.
We have recalled the principal-and well-known-factors
in
the
present situation in order to suggest a negative reply to the question
of a Middle Eastern settlement. In Europe, a limited agreement
is
improbable because of the direct conflict between the Soviet insistence
on the political status quo and the Western insistence on the military
status quo. In the Middle East, agreement seems excluded by
the
revolutionary process which, although favored and partially manipu–
lated by the Soviets, cannot be completely dominated by either side.
Why should the men
in
the Kremlin agree to refrain from
the "active neutralists"?
Nobody can predict the further developments of this crisis,
the extent to which the West will succeed in safeguarding its
essen–
tial interests and coming to some sort of terms with the Arab
tionalists. East-West negotiations would probably be sterile.
The prospect of limited agreement is hardly any brighter
in
Far East. For the moment, the policy of Peking is not aggressive.
Tse-tung and Chou En-lai are seeking to reassure their neighbors
Southeast Asia. The Americans will eventually have to recognize
