Trump, Biden, and a 2024 Presidential Race Featuring Two Flawed Candidates
In 1968, voters were faced with two presidential candidates, Republican Richard Nixon (above) and Democrat Hubert Humphrey, who were both unpopular at the time. Will 2024 be a repeat of that election? Photo via AP
Trump, Biden, and a 2024 Presidential Race Featuring Two Flawed Candidates
CGS’ Thomas Whalen on Trump’s civil suit loss, Biden’s own problems, and the history of unpopular presidential nominees
There have been plenty of presidential elections throughout history where one of the two major party candidates was deeply flawed or flat-out unpopular. But elections when both parties put up unpopular and flawed candidates to run against each other have been more rare. Is that where 2024 is headed?
The candidate leading polls for the Republican Party is former President Donald Trump, who on Tuesday was found liable by a jury for sexually abusing the writer E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s and then later defaming her in repeated public attacks. Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, after losing his reelection bid to President Joe Biden, is also a lingering stain his party has wrestled with. Meanwhile, across the aisle, unless something dramatic occurs, the Democrats’ nominee will be its incumbent, Biden, whose poll numbers remain low and whose age (80) is a major concern among voters and his own party leaders.
A lot could change between now and Election Day in 2024, but as of this moment, it’s shaping up as a rematch of the 2020 election. BU Today spoke with Thomas J. Whalen, a College of General Studies associate professor of social sciences whose research focuses on modern American history and presidential leadership, about Trump, Biden, and the history of flawed presidential candidates.
Q&A
With Thomas Whalen
BU Today: Even though Trump is leading in the polls among Republicans, it’s hard to imagine he is the candidate the party would prefer to see as their nominee ultimately. Do you think he is?
Whalen: I don’t necessarily agree with that. The Republican Party has dramatically changed since 2016. It’s been a hostile takeover, but I think base Republicans are now far to the right of center, if not authoritarian. Trump sort of represents that point of view. I don’t entirely see the bulk of the Republican Party holding their nose when they pull the lever for Trump. You can see that in the amount of money being raised.
BU Today: But the last three elections—2018, 2020, 2022—in which Trump played a direct, or indirect, role, did not go well for the GOP.
Whalen: The last three elections, there have not been enough of the far-right voters. The base is only so big. Democrats have a far wider base. For Republicans, unless they want to dramatically change tactics, they will experience losses. Under normal circumstances, they are not going to win.
BU Today: Do the Democrats have the same problem with nominating Biden? His issues are different from Trump’s, but his popularity remains low.
Whalen: They are looking at alternatives—if not Biden, then who? And there is no standout in the crowd yet to stand out and win a general election. By default they will go back to Biden. Given recent Supreme Court decisions, I think they are willing to hold their nose and vote for Biden. And the truth is that he has, above and beyond, delivered what the liberal base wants, even more so than Obama. They will complain now about the nitty-gritty, but they will vote for Biden.
BU Today: Is there one voting block you think is key?
Whalen: Gen Z is now beginning to reach political development. If they break for the Democrats as independents did the last time out, Democrats will win.
BU Today: And even with this week’s news about Trump losing a civil trial, you think he will still be the GOP nominee?
Whalen: I think it’s going to help him. He is playing the victim. His base is set up. They feel his victimhood. Left behind by globalization, by elites in this country, and by gosh they have their champion in Trump. They will follow him through the rings of hell. Republicans will turn out their base. It’s going to be Trump, no doubt in my mind.
BU Today: Can you recall an election in history like this potential one, where both candidates had such deep-rooted problems?
Whalen: In 1968, there was no great enthusiasm for [the Republican] Nixon. [Democrat] Hubert Humphrey was identified with LBJ for the Vietnam War. That allowed George Wallace (running as a third-party candidate) to do so well in that election and make him a viable candidate.
In 1912, Woodrow Wilson for the Democrats and William Howard Taft for the Republicans. Theodore Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate and actually beat Taft in the general election, the best showing for a third-party candidate, and it split the Republican vote and allowed Wilson to win the presidency with under 50 percent of the popular vote. If Roosevelt had not run, Taft would have won.
BU Today: Could you see third-party candidates playing a disruptive role in 2024?
Whalen: That’s a factor now. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. goes as an independent, he could take 1, 2, even 5 percent of the vote and that could eat into margins for Biden. But could Republican Liz Cheney run? Then you could have multiple third-party candidates, which we have not seen in a long, long time. It shows how fractured our parties are to have that potential.
BU Today: Is there one other issue that could prove pivotal, in your view?
Whalen: The economy. It leaves open a lane for Trump. The regional banks, if that goes belly-up, it would have a crushing blow on the economy. Plus, the debt limit talks. That would put the entire world into a major recession. We are awfully close to the brink here, too close if you are Joe Biden. But I would not count against him. He has sharp elbows, politically speaking, and that’s what Democrats need to run against Donald Trump.
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