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think there would be very little political opposition in this country to
taking the appropriate response.
BARRY BELGOROD: What about that radar facility George men–
tioned?
JOHN PIKE: I think that there is no question that that radar is in–
consistent with the ABM treaty and that we ought to be doing every–
thing we can to get them to take the thing down. Unfortunately, Mr.
Perle has not given General Ellis, who is our commissioner on the
Standing Consultative Commission, any leeway in discussing with
the Soviets what can be done to resolve that issue. I also support the
Reagan administration's policy of continued adherence to the ABM
treaty and trying to get the Soviets back to adhere to the ABM treaty,
and I think it would be very stupid for us to throw out the baby with
the bath.
LIONEL ABEL: I admired many things about your presentation,
but I could not really understand your answer to William Phillips.
Because, as I recollect, this country had an enormous advantage
over the Soviet Union for many years in its nuclear power. The
Soviet Union was never afraid that we would attack them, although
we could have.
JOHN PIKE: Of course they were.
LIONEL ABEL: In my opinion that's also a question of your
political judgement. My judgement is that they were never afraid.
So it doesn't seem clear to me that they would risk a nuclear war if
we developed some kind of defense system which we call leaky.
JOHN PIKE: I was not arguing that the Soviets would conduct a
preventative war against the United States in order to prevent us
from developing a system. I was arguing rather that leaky defenses
increase incentives for preemptive war in a time of crisis.
LIONEL ABEL: Why?
JOHN PIKE: Because the difference between striking first and
striking second is the difference between survival and annihilation.
LIONEL ABEL: That's also true now. You did not answer that
question.
JOHN PIKE: Today there is nothing that either side can do by
striking first that would improve postwar outcomes. There is nothing
that either side can do today in terms of counterforce attacks that
would tangibly or significantly reduce the ability of the other side to
inflict damage on urban-industrial assests.
WILLIAM PHILLIPS: That's what Lionel and I were saying.
That's precisely what you were saying.
