Mideast Peace Deal Has a Real Chance to Succeed, Says BU International Relations Scholar
Former US ambassador says trust between the parties and international participation are essential
People in Tel Aviv, Israel (left) and in the southern Gaza Strip (right), celebrating the announcement that Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a peace plan. Left photo: Ohad Zwigenberg/AP Photo; right photo: Jehad Alshrafi/AP Photo
Mideast Peace Deal Has a Real Chance to Succeed, Says BU International Relations Scholar
Former diplomat and US ambassador Mark Storella says trust between the parties and international participation are essential
The peace deal announced this week between Israel and Hamas is enormously ambitious and faces many hurdles, says a veteran US diplomat now teaching at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. But, he adds, it has a real chance to succeed.
“The 20-point peace plan, if it is indeed implemented and if it holds, will be a very substantial diplomatic achievement,” says Mark Storella, a professor of the practice of diplomacy at the Pardee School. Prior to coming to BU, Storella, whose expertise covers humanitarian crises, multilateral diplomacy, and diplomatic negotiation and theory, was a longtime US foreign service officer and onetime US ambassador to Zambia. He also played a role in the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements ending the Cambodian Civil War and paving the way for a constitutional monarchy after years of Khmer Rouge terror and foreign occupation in Cambodia.
Storella says the agreement between Israel and Hamas is “comprehensive in its nature, tackling everything from getting to a ceasefire, to the exchange of hostages and prisoners, to demilitarization, to very novel ideas about governance of Gaza, to rehabilitation and humanitarian assistance, to an international peacekeeping force, which will be completely novel in its structure, to a perspective for eventual Palestinian statehood and even interfaith reconciliation.” It is “really an enormous undertaking,” he says.
Under the deal brokered by the Trump Administration, a truce would take effect Friday, October 10, starting a 72-hour window during which Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages (living and deceased) and Israel would release approximately 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israel and 1,700 Gazans it has held during the war. Humanitarian aid would soon flow into Gaza, other interested countries in the region would help secure the peace, and the parties would move toward a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But in the shadow of Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s retaliation, Storella says, enacting the agreement is far from a certainty and a number of key details remain unclear. BU Today spoke with Storella about the challenges that lie ahead and the role the United States is likely to play in helping to implement the agreement.
Q&A
with Mark Storella
BU Today: What does the immediate future look like, if this agreement holds?
Storella: Some things we can see in the near term with relative confidence. If the guns are silenced, this is going to be an enormous relief to the Palestinian people in Gaza, who are under extreme pressure. It is hard to overstate the level of physical and psychological pressure these people have been under for the last two years. So that alone will be a kind of revolution, I think. There’s a huge commitment to humanitarian and rehabilitation aid. In the near term, one would hope, we will see a flood of humanitarian aid moving into Gaza, so the people there are eating again and have safe drinking water. Ultimately, one hopes, the 600,000 Palestinian children in Gaza will be able to go to school again. That could happen in the relatively near term, which would be a wonderful thing.
But it’s going to be difficult for Palestinians to return to their homes, because most of the homes have been destroyed—it’s hard to tell for sure, but 80 to 90 percent of the homes of Palestinians have been destroyed or damaged. So there’s going to have to be a huge reconstruction effort. That’s going to be very complicated. It doesn’t say in this agreement who’s paying for that. We don’t see pledges for reconstruction. I think there will be. But that’s all going to have to still be worked out, one would hope.
BU Today: There is a lot still to be worked out in this agreement.
Storella: When I look at it, one of the things that strikes me is that it is only two pages long. There are a lot of details that have not yet been filled in, that will need to be developed over time. There is some benchmarking, steps that will lead to other steps, which means that the peace plan could fall off the tracks if any of these steps aren’t implemented at the beginning—things like demilitarization of Hamas, and, of course, the exchange of the hostages and prisoners. We’re already seeing that these things are being negotiated about right now. So there’s a lot to be done here.
BU Today: Does this compare to any of your past experiences in diplomacy?
Storella: I was involved for years in the Cambodia peace negotiations, and that peace plan, which had many of the same elements, ran to something like 25 or 30 pages and involved a whole bunch of UN agencies in very specific ways. In many respects, we don’t see any of that specificity in the current plan, but that doesn’t mean it can’t succeed, just that there’s more to be done.
BU Today: How do the events of October 7, 2023, factor into this process?
Many Israelis, no doubt, feel that any member of Hamas who had any role in leading the attacks of October 7 should be brought to justice, one way or another. Meanwhile, we see that the International Criminal Court has an indictment against Benjamin Netanyahu [for Israel’s actions in Gaza]. What’s going to happen to the advocates of justice and accountability in those areas? I have to say that this is very hard for me, because I am a strong believer in justice and accountability. But I teach my students that one should not let accountability get in the way of a peace that will serve millions of people, and it may be that we’re in that situation now.
BU Today: What is the most significant challenge here?
I think the most significant challenge is developing sufficient trust. With each step, each party gives something up. And they will be reluctant to do so if they don’t believe the other side is going to deliver on its commitments. So we should be watching very carefully to see if there are violations of the ceasefire, which should go into effect [Friday]. We should look carefully to see if there are disagreements over which hostages are released. If all the Israeli hostages are released, which Palestinian prisoners being held by the Israelis are [to be] released?
Then we’re going to see a complicated implementation of the issues related to disarmament. Will Hamas be willing to give up all its weapons? Will Israel be convinced that they have done so? I’m just thinking back to what happened in Cambodia. Our difficulties in trying to get the Khmer Rouge to give up its weapons nearly tanked the agreement. International involvement
will be extremely important in providing some kind of security guarantee.
BU Today: What are the roles of other nations in implementing this agreement? What is the role of the United States going forward?
The US role is enormous, because this peace plan envisages an international peace board that will be headed by President Trump. So President Trump, theoretically, is going to be leading the implementation of this peace plan personally, although it also mentions former British Prime Minister Tony Blair playing a role. So the United States will be deeply involved.
An International Stabilization Force is supposed to be made up of regional contributions of forces. Who’s going to contribute those forces? What will be the terms of engagement for them? What will be their mandate? And how will they deal with what could undoubtedly be losses amongst members of that security force? I think that…international players like Qatar and Egypt are going to have to come to grips with a responsibility that’s been placed on their shoulders.
BU Today: What are the longer-term hopes for a lasting peace?
One would hope that over time the Gazans—who, frankly, have been captives of Hamas for decades—will be in a position to have some kind of self-determination. And one would hope that will happen in a way that would be acceptable to the Israelis and acceptable to the Palestinians. So one can see that developing over time as well. There are possibilities of many good things happening, but as we’ve said, there are many, many steps between here and there, and each step will have to be implemented carefully. And with each step, there will either be growing trust or a break in trust.
BU Today: What was your first reaction when you saw President Trump’s 20-point peace plan?
Many of the elements of this were already being negotiated under the Biden administration, but there are many new elements as well. When I saw it, I was struck by how comprehensive it was, how far-reaching. And how little ink there is on paper describing each of these pieces. It’s two pages. It seems likely that the United States put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to deliver on this peace plan.
I’m teaching a course on international negotiation, and tomorrow [Friday] we will be discussing this. I’m really hoping the students will dig into this and try to understand what elements are really necessary to create a possible peace accord.
A successful peace negotiation in conflicts like this is usually possible only when the sides have reached a hurting stalemate—where they cannot advance their goals through fighting, but they are still suffering. It also helps to have outside pressure, which we had here. It is often best in a negotiation for all parties to feel equally dissatisfied. That may be the case with this peace plan.