Q&A: Why Are So Many People Leaving Massachusetts?
Questrom lecturer Mark Williams, with a new study, examines the exodus and reasons behind “brain drain” and outmigration
The Questrom study on out-migration found that taxes, cost of housing, and healthcare are three top concerns for people who leave Massachusetts. Photo via iStock/Lisa-Blue
Q&A: Why Are So Many People Leaving Massachusetts?
Questrom lecturer Mark Williams, with a new study, examines the exodus and reasons behind “brain drain” and out-migration
It’s no secret that people come to Massachusetts—or stay in Massachusetts—to attend college. It’s indisputably an education capital. On top of that, in the last two decades the state has seen explosive growth in the number of biopharmaceutical and digital-first companies moving in, technology entrepreneurs launching new businesses, and global tech companies like Amazon, Google, and Apple opening offices.
So, if people want to study and learn here, and tech businesses want to set up shop here, why are more people leaving Massachusetts than arriving—a trend called net out-migration? That question was the focus of research by BU’s Mark Williams, a master lecturer in finance at the Questrom School of Business, and two graduate students. They found that “outbound residents are moving mainly to 11 states, with over half remaining in New England.” They also found that the largest segment of people leaving, based solely on numbers, are aged 26 to 34, and the largest segment leaving based on adjusted gross income level is 55 to 64.
Williams spoke with BU Today about his study (which can be viewed here) and its findings.
Q&A
with Mark Williams
BU Today: First of all, can we start with your research and how you pulled it together? Where is the data from, and what was the motivation for the research?
Mark Williams: This study was motivated by a desire to help policymakers better understand why, over the last decade, Massachusetts has experienced a growing number of residents leaving the state. Two BU Questrom graduate students, Yuhan Liu and Linglan Xu, served as researchers for this project. Both did an exceptional job. The study used publicly available government datasets, including US Census and IRS datasets, which helped link state population, people movement, and demographics with the financial impact of this exodus. The motto we embraced throughout this study was simple: let the data speak. The research started last summer and took nine months to complete.
BU Today: I feel like this subject of “brain drain” has been a conversation for 20 or 30 years in Boston. Hasn’t out-migration always been an issue for big cities—and a big college town like Boston? Why is this different?
Mark Williams: Net out-migration (more people leaving than arriving) is a sign that brain drain is real. Massachusetts has been the nation’s educational capital, with [roughly] 300,000 students arriving each year to attend various colleges and universities. Upon graduation, some students remain, work, live, and play in the commonwealth, while others seek careers elsewhere. This ebb and flow of a well-educated workforce has been part of the knowledge-based economy that has historically fueled the Massachusetts economy. It is not uncommon for a state to see a healthy flow in and out. But when it becomes lopsided, this should raise alarm bells. In the last decade, the flow of moving trucks out of the state has far exceeded those arriving. Massachusetts now ranks as one of the highest move-from states in the country.
BU Today: Is any of this COVID’s fault, as people reevaluated priorities and maybe sought new chapters for themselves?
Mark Williams: The study showed that net out-migration started to grow back in 2013, but COVID gave this outbound trend an adrenaline boost. In short order, the pandemic challenged old work structures and gave rise to new remote work options, demonstrating that remote workers could be productive and profitable. Traffic-filled commutes and office building existences were no longer mandatory. During COVID, Massachusetts hit a new outbound peak of 56,000 residents. By 2027, the study estimated net out-migration levels could surpass pandemic levels.
BU Today: In the polarized world we live in now, how many people are moving for economic reasons, possibly compared to how many for political ones? It looks like most of the top five destination states in your findings, Florida, New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas, appear to lean Republican, while Massachusetts obviously leans Democratic.
Mark Williams: That’s an interesting question. This study focused on the central drivers that helped to influence individuals and families to move to and from a given state, but data did not track movement and political affiliation. The study showed the decision to move is complicated and multifactorial. It is also clear that while economic factors, such as level of income tax and housing costs, are dominant, political leaning could play a partial role. The study did not explore this hypothesis, but it would be an interesting one to research and examine in the future.
BU Today: How does Massachusetts’ out-migration compare to other blue states, like New York and California?
Mark Williams: Similar to California and New York, Massachusetts is experiencing net out-migration. This is concerning from an economic and political standpoint. As more people leave, they take their economic spending with them and the state also loses income tax revenue. A shrinking tax base makes it harder to provide a strong level of government services and puts pressure on policymakers to either raise taxes on those that stay or cut services. If this trend continues, as the research highlights, congressional seats, which are set by population, will also decline.
BU Today: There have been lots of stories about Boston’s nightlife scene contributing to young people leaving the city. Is there more that the state, by working with private businesses, could be doing?
Mark Williams: I’m not an expert on the Boston nightlife scene. But MBTA trains stopping shortly after midnight has always seemed a bit puritanical. Stemming outbound migration will take a coordinated effort of policy informed by community and business leaders. Recent out-migration demographics point to a broad exodus of the prime-age workforce (26-54). This is particularly concerning to businesses as they attempt to attract and retain talent workers. In response, businesses need to stay attuned to worker needs and desires.
This study demonstrated that the level of income taxes, cost of housing, and healthcare are three top concerns. The business community should lobby Beacon Hill to require that the governor formally appoint a cabinet-level official to lead the charge to address out-migration. The level of income tax should be examined closely, as it influences where people want to live and play. Businesses should find ways to help with housing costs in providing incentives to attract and retain talented workers. In a market where employees have more remote work options, businesses that are unwilling to offer more worker-friendly options will be at a distinct disadvantage.
BU Today: Your findings also showed that births are down and deaths are up in Massachusetts in the last decade. Are people here just not having enough babies to offset net out-migration?
Mark Williams: The population needs to grow to ensure a strong and vibrant state economy. Birth rates are not a single state problem, but reflect a societal change. On a national basis, post baby boom (after the early 1960s), birth rates have steadily declined. Given this trend, for states such as Massachusetts to grow requires an influx of new people willing to work, live, and spend in the state. This is why net out-migration is more troubling, as the loss in residents can’t be made up by new births.
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