How Crazy Is Karzai?

First, a recap: In February, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzairesponded to widely believed allegations that he stole last year’selection. His answer: he would personally appoint a committee toinvestigate the charges. The solution failed to impress U.S. officials,who had pressed for a complete and transparent investigation of theelection. The Americans responded by reneging on an expected invitationto Karzai (Hon.’05) to visit the White House. That in turn displeasedKarzai, who chose to invite Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad toKabul, where, predictably, Ahmadeinejad ranted about America’s evilintentions throughout the world. Karzai’s move confused many people andannoyed President Obama, who flew to Kabul, visited with U.S. troops,and sat down to a surprise dinner with the Afghani president. Just afew days later, Karzai warned in a speech to the Afghani people that“there is a thin curtain between invasion and cooperation-assistance.”

Whatcould possibly happen next? In what looks increasingly like the scriptof a political farce, it’s hard to say. For insight, BU Today turned toNick Mills, an associate professor of journalism in the College ofCommunication and author of Karzai: The Failing American Interventionand the Struggle for Afghanistan (2007).

BU Today: Do youthink President Obama’s surprise nighttime visit with Karzai lastmonth, demanding a corruption clampdown, will have any effect?
Mills: You’re already seeing a backlash from Karzai, who invitedIranian President Ahmadinejad to Kabul to stick his thumb in the eye ofPresident Obama. Maybe Obama just needed to be face-to-face with theguy to see if he was dealing with someone whose marbles hadn’t allrolled away. Karzai’s certainly acting erratically and venting hisfrustration at the United States, because he has little de facto power.I think in his heart of hearts, he always wanted to be king. But itdoesn’t matter what you call him. He has never for a moment been thesovereign of Afghanistan. The sovereign has been in Washington. Thepeople of Afghanistan know that.

Should we dump him?
We can’t do that. Afghanistan has a constitution now. We madeAfghanistan create a parliamentary democracy. Who are we to say that’snow out the window?

Has your opinion of Karzai changed since you met him?
Yes. In 2004, 2005, when I was meeting with him all those eveningsabout the book I thought he was doing OK. Things have continually sliddown the slope since. The corruption and drug problems have grown byleaps and bounds. He knows who’s corrupt. 

I used to think Karzai’s not corrupt. But knowing who’s corrupt and not doing anything about it, I think, is corrupt.

Obama ordered a troop surge in December, promising to begin withdrawalsmid-2011. You were skeptical, but might he prove skeptics wrong, as theIraq surge did?
There’s a different set of circumstances in Iraq and Afghanistan. Idon’t think there’s ever going to be a military solution to this — andObama didn’t say the rate of withdrawals. It could be one soldier a dayfor all anyone knows. That causes everyone to hedge their bets.

What would you advise Obama to do now?
Begin the withdrawals and match that with a corresponding increase onthe civilian side in aid to education and health and infrastructure.Find a way to better the lives of the Afghanis.

Are we doing that now?
Yes, but it’s increasing the peril by increasing the troop levels. They’re now seen as an occupying army, like the Soviets.

Do we need at least a minimal troop force to ensure that Afghanistan doesn’t re-emerge as a terrorist haven?
That we can ensure pretty well from a distance. You have goodintelligence on the ground and in the air. There’s no reason foral-Qaeda to go back into Afghanistan. They can go anywhere; they justneed a cave in the mountains.

In the Iraq surge, we bought off the Sunni sheiks. In Afghanistan, thepeople we’d have to buy off are the Taliban. A lot of the Taliban arenot hard-core ideologues. Karzai, to his credit, has wanted all alongto negotiate with them.

What’s your gut say about where we’ll be in Afghanistan five years from now?
In five years, I would hope that we’ve drawn down. Ultimately, this isan Afghan problem to solve. A scholar at Johns Hopkins says, if youleave today, the Taliban will be back; the day after that, the Afghanswill begin to push back. They don’t want to go back to that crap.There’s certainly a role for the central government to empower localleaders, making life better for their people.

Rich Barlow can be reached at barlowr@bu.edu.