Farrell Will Need More Than Money to Win
By Dori Berman
WASHINGTON, October 20, 2004 – While Diane Farrell has more going for her than recent photo opportunities with big-name Democrats, Rep. Chris Shays still holds the advantage in what many have called his toughest race yet.
As of Sept. 30, Farrell had raised $1.25 million to Shays’ $1.7 million, an impressive amount for a challenger by most standards. In the 2002 election cycle, challengers to House members raised an average of $198,000.
Even with a significant campaign chest, however, the odds are stacked against Farrell.
Only four incumbents lost House seats in 2002. The average spending by challengers who won was $1.6 million.
“To overcome Shays’ incumbency advantage would be extremely difficult,” said Jeff Ladewig, political science professor at the University of Connecticut.
A poll the university conducted last week showed Shays with a seven-point advantage over Farrell, a large gap to overcome in only two weeks, Ladewig said. At the same time, according to the poll, 18 percent said they were still undecided.
Farrell’s campaign officials, however, remain confident in her chances to close the gap.
“I think 2002 was a very different year than 2004. I think people are very eager for change both across the country and in Connecticut,” said Adam Wood, campaign manager for Farrell.
Wood attributed Farrell’s fundraising success to her strong record as Westport’s first selectwoman and to grassroots local support.
“We have an extraordinary amount of people making small contributions, literally thousands of them from this district,” he said. Of the $1.2 million raised, 89 percent, or $1.1 million, came from individual donors, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Shays has not faced an opponent as well funded as Farrell during his nine terms in the House, Wood noted. In 2002, Shays’ opponent, Stephanie Sanchez, raised only $119,000, while Shays raised $976,000. Shays won with 64 percent of the vote.
Stressing that money has an impact on a campaign, Wood said that the money goes to communicating the differences between the candidates through television and radio ads and mailings to voters.
But Shays is not focused on fundraising wars, said Sarah Moore, his campaign spokeswoman. Instead, she said, his focus is on running the best race possible.
“Chris feels like he will win or lose this election based on the job he’s done, and he feels he’s done a great job,” Moore said.
Herb Shepherdson, chairman of the Connecticut Republican Party, dismissed Farrell’s fundraising success as the result of aggressive campaigning.
“I think Chris is still going to win. I think the people are happy with him and they’re going to send him back,” Shepherdson said.
While Farrell is close to Shays in funds raised, she had only $422,000 still available on Sept. 30, compared to the $879,000 Shays had on hand.
Both candidates have received support from well-known politicians in their parties. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y) joined Farrell in Westport for a campaign fundraiser earlier this month.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will attend a reception in Farrell’s honor on Friday, the same day former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani will visit the district on Shays’ behalf. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) also has campaigned with Shays in Connecticut.
