To Republicans and Democrats, House Seat Appears Vulnerable
EFFICIENCY
New Hampshire Union Leader
Joe Markman
Boston University Washington News Service
10/23/09
WASHINGTON – Money from Democratic leaders has poured into the campaign chest of Rep. Carol Shea-Porter at the same time that congressional Republicans have targeted her seat in next year’s election, indicating an overall sense of vulnerability for the two-term incumbent.
Shea-Porter’s latest campaign finance report to the Federal Election Commission indicates that her top two donor groups are leadership committees—political action committees that members of Congress set up to support other congressional candidates—tothe tune of $30,500, and other candidates’ committees, at $23,000. She has raised $392,000 so far, and has $296,000 left in her coffers.
Among her top donors are the leadership committees of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., which has contributed $4,000, and majority whip Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., which has given $5,000, according to the Web site OpenSecrets.org, an arm of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that reports on and analyzes campaign finances.
Leading Republican candidate Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, meanwhile, has been identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee as one of its “Young Guns,” a program identifying Republican candidates seen as potential conquerors of Democratic incumbents. He has raised $236,000 as of October, mostly from individual contributions, and has $180,000 left to spend, according to his filing with the Federal Election Commission.
“We’ve seen a very strong grassroots engagement at this stage of the game,” Guinta said in a telephone interview, “which is good because most people argue that my opponent had a good grassroots organization and we’re not only going to match that but exceed it.”
Guinta has raised 90 percent of his money from individual contributions.
Political analysts and Republican opponents say that Shea-Porter has largely left behind her grassroots origins since being elected on a wave of anti-war sentiment in 2006. Back then, she was best known for protesting the war in Iraq at many of then-House Republican Jeb Bradley’s town hall meetings.
“Congresswoman Shea-Porter has always received strong grassroots support and financial contributions from the people of New Hampshire, and for Frank Guinta to suggest otherwise is just plain laughable,” said Derek Richer, spokesman for the New Hampshire Democratic Party.
Richer emphasized Guinta’s struggle to keep up with Shea-Porter’s fundraising efforts, saying that this has made the Republican desperate to go on the offensive. Richer also called claims that Shea-Porter is disconnected from her constituents inaccurate, pointing to the fact that Shea-Porter still raises the majority of her money from individuals.
Yet during the 2006 election cycle, Shea-Porter raised 85 percent of her money from individual donations, according to OpenSecrets. By 2008 that was down to 61 percent and today stands at 55 percent.
“I think she’s vulnerable because of the district. It’s competitive. It can be susceptible to the national environment,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political analysis group. “Whoever the incumbent might be, they are going to have a level of vulnerability.”
New Hampshire Democrats should certainly feel targeted going into next year’s election, Gonzales said, because the state, lately neither too red nor too blue, has swung pretty far Democratic, with Republicans losing House and Senate seats.
Political action committees, organized to elect certain candidates, are major donors to the incumbent, totaling 40 percent of the $392,000 she has raised so far, according to OpenSecrets.org.
“Political action committees are often used as vehicles to shore up vulnerable incumbents and to come to the aid of members who face stiff competition,” said Dave Levinthal, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics.
Republican Robert Bestani, coming in a distant third in fund-raising efforts, had $44,000 in his campaign chest as of Sept. 30. Currently a visiting global business scholar at Stanford University, Bestani was formerly a director at the Asian Development Bank, dedicated to alleviating poverty in the region.
Shea-Porter has also been highlighted by her national party leadership for reelection. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists her as a “Frontline Democrat,” a partnership between members and the committee to expand fund-raising efforts.
‘There’s an uncertain political environment heading into next year,” Gonzales said. “[Shea-Porter] is in an increasingly different situation because she is an incumbent.”
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