Sununu: Up in Money, Down in the Polls
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Union Leader
Matt Negrin
Boston University Washington News Service
28 February 2008
WASHINGTON — Six years ago, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen raised $2 million more than Republican John Sununu in their contest for a Senate seat. Yet Shaheen lost by 20,000 votes out of 430,000 cast.
In this year’s rematch, which is shaping up as one of the most closely watched races in the country, Sununu has the fundraising edge. But Shaheen, who has a strong base she established as governor for six years, is holding a substantial lead in the polls.
Sununu had $3.42 million in his campaign war chest at the end of 2007, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. Shaheen raised $1.36 million since August, when she announced her candidacy, and had $1.13 million to spend as 2008 began.
But with polls showing Sununu trailing, Shaheen could pull ahead in donations. The Granite State poll released Feb. 11 shows Shaheen leading Sununu 54 to 37 percent, figures that are unchanged since a poll in July.
When an incumbent’s points are fewer than 50, he should be worried about reelection, said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll.
“It doesn’t look very good for Sununu right now,” Smith said. “If Sununu’s poll numbers don’t start to turn around somewhat quickly, he’s going to have [more] difficulty raising funds than will Shaheen, because the fund raisers pay attention to the polls.”
Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said the race is a “toss-up.”
“I think you’re going to see Democrats make the case that they believe Sununu’s too conservative, and they are going to do what they did [in other races] so successfully in 2006, which is tie him to [President] Bush as much as possible,” she said.
Duffy predicted Shaheen will have more money to spend come November, but she said money won’t be the “biggest factor in the race,” citing a liberal-leaning electorate voting in an environment where Republicans have become less welcome.
“I think everyone is expecting a close race,” said Sununu’s chief of staff, Paul Collins, who will leave his post to run the senator’s reelection campaign. “It was a fairly close race last time, and I suspect it will be similar this time.”
“It seems to me that polls are all over the place at this time, and our focus is not on the polls,” Collins said. In December, an American Research Group poll reported the incumbent leading, 52 to 41 percent.
Bill Hyers, Shaheen’s campaign manager, said, “This is going to be a tight race. There’s no ifs, ands or buts about it.”
“He’ll outspend us, but at the end of the day, Gov. Shaheen will have enough money to get her message out … about how she’s going to change this country,” Hyers said.
For the entire 2003-08 election cycle, Sununu raised $4.5 million, more than half of which came from individual donations and about $1.8 million from political action committees — interest groups that pool money to support candidates, according to FEC filings.
The Sununu campaign has spent more than $400,000 on printing, postage and political and fundraising events, Collins said. Though the Shaheen camp raised more money in the last quarter of fundraising, Collins noted that his campaign’s available dollars are three times that of the former governor’s.
The Shaheen camp has spent $223,000 so far on what Hyers said are “initial start-up costs” like hiring staff, renting an office and buying furniture and computers. The team has not started major advertising campaigns yet, but the governor’s name already carries recognition among many voters.
And since 2002, the Granite State has been tilting Democratic, Smith said, citing Democrats’ higher voter turnout in 2006. When Sununu won six years ago, there was no presidential race; this time there is a fierce contest for the White House. The increased voter turnout will favor Democrats by 3 to 4 percent in New Hampshire because the public tends to vote “straight ticket,” Smith said.
“Right now, I’d bet that Shaheen would win,” he said. “But my sense is that because of the political history of the two organizations, both of them are going to see it as a race that they can win.”
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