Polls Favor Democrats Taking House; Meehan, Tierney Get Ready
DemsHouse
The Eagle-Tribune
Bryan McGonigle
Boston University Washington News Service
Sept. 14, 2006
WASHINGTON – The 110th Congress may be a shade of blue – politically, that is.
Democrats, who lost control of the House after the1994 elections, have a strong chance of getting it back in November, according to many polls, pundits and political analysts.
Of the 435 House seats – 232 of which are held by Republicans – Democrats need to pick up 15 to gain control. Several months ago, most leading political analysts dismissed the idea of a majority change. But with about 65 of the races showing some degree of competition, the skeptics are changing their tunes.
“We’re just going have to work hard,” Rep. John F. Tierney, D-Mass., said of the Democratic Party. “We have good candidates out in the field. It’s fertile ground.”
In a recent Gallup poll asking people if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each party, 54 percent said they looked favorably on the Democratic Party – its highest rating in two years – and 40 percent said they looked unfavorably on the party. The Republican Party was viewed favorably by 53 percent and unfavorably.
The gap between the parties is much wider. When people were asked which party’s candidate they would vote for in their congressional district if the election were held today, 53 percent said Democratic and 41 percent said Republican.
“It’s too bad the elections aren’t being held today,” Tierney said with a laugh.
Many Democrats are running on anti-Bush and anti-Republican fuel, ignited by the public’s diminished support of President Bush,, by increasing distrust of Congress and by growing dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq.
“It’s clear to me that people in America feel the country is going in the wrong direction,” Rep. Marty Meehan, D-Mass., said, adding that Democrats want to see more troops in Afghanistan to fight the war on terror. “Most Americans feel that war is going in the wrong direction.”
Bush’s job approval rating remains well under 50 percent, and approval of Congress is below 30 percent – making this an anti-incumbent and anti-Republican election, according to the Gallup editor’s forecast.
“There’s an incredible dissatisfaction right now on the direction of this country, and it’s not just Iraq,” Tierney said. “It goes across to Katrina. It goes across to the economy.”
Democrats have long had a reputation for taxing and spending, and Republicans have run successful campaigns making that point. If Democrats take the House, Meehan wants to see the House focus on cutting spending but isn’t ruling out tax increases for some people.
“Reining in spending will be a part of it,” Meehan said. “I think that if more revenue is needed to balance the budget, the Bush tax cuts for the highest one percent could have their tax cuts rolled back, but that doesn’t affect 99 percent of Americans.”
Meehan would like to see a check and balance on the Bush administration if the Democrats get control of the House.
“This Congress has been a rubber stamp for anything the administration wants to do,” Meehan said. “Spending has gone unchecked. Auditing of the books is in order.”
The possible change of power may seem familiar to many people. In the 1994 mid-term elections, Republican candidates won sweeping victories and took over the House with campaigns focused on reducing government spending, improving the military and balancing the budget. Many also ran on the common goal of taking on Democratic President Clinton.
Bets in favor of a Democratic takeover could lead to a lot of missteps on the Democrats’ part, Meehan warned.
“I’m concerned there are some Democrats who are too overconfident,” he said. “Republicans have demonstrated that they will say or do anything to try to divert attention from their record.”
Tierney agrees that Republicans will probably use effective attack methods, but said he’s optimistic about his party’s members and their strategy and sees no evidence of overconfidence among Democrats.
“We’re taking nothing for granted,” he said. “If these were parliamentary elections, you could be as confident as you want to be.”
The goal will be to get the Democratic message into each district with a Republican congressman, Tierney said, and convince the voters that keeping their congressman will only perpetuate the policies of an already unpopular Congress.
Tierney said the Democrats will focus on issues that mainstream Americans – Republicans and Democrats alike – care about: restoring veterans’ benefits, going after oil companies for what he called price gouging and tax giveaways, cutting student loan interest rates in half, expanding Pell grants for college students and revising Medicare’s prescription drug benefits.
“If they win by a narrow margin, it makes it tough to govern,” Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute said. “Whether they’re able to keep the House for more than two years depends on how far they overreach.”
If people think the Democrats are just out for revenge, he added, they will likely vote the party out just as quickly as they voted them in.
“Second, it depends on whether having a Democratic majority forces both sides to talk to each other,” Ornstein said. “That’s tricky, but there’s a better chance of that if one party isn’t in charge of everything.”
No matter what polls say today, both congressmen agree that until Nov. 7, it’s still anyone’s game to win or lose.
“The Democrats are always the underdog until it’s actually done,” Tierney said.
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