Shays-Farrell Redux
By Adam Kredo
WASHINGTON, April 20 – With U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-4, in possibly the toughest race of his political career, even his campaign manager has expressed uncertainty about both the outcome and the strategy for re-election victory in November.
Shays is typically known for avoiding negative campaign advertising and focusing his television ads on issues and his own record rather than on his opponent and his campaign plans to continue that approach this time around.
“Am I going to say [our strategy is] going to be a success and we’re going to win? No. but do we feel that it’s the right path to take? Yeah,” said Michael Sohn, 31, who has run Shays’ last three congressional campaigns.
As the 19-year incumbent struggles to retain his U.S. House of Representatives seat in a rematch with Democratic challenger Dianne Farrell, the major question many political observers are asking is whether Shays will finally bare his teeth and get aggressive.
Many of these observers doubt that he will.
“On election night, if Chris Shays loses I’m not going to be that surprised,” Nathan Gonzales, the political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report based in Washington, said in a telephone interview.
“In 2006 Shays biggest liability is the ‘R’ behind the name. Being a Republican in his congressional district this year is his biggest liability,” Gonzales said. “I think this election is going to be about President Bush for voters in the middle. I’m not saying the voters don’t care about other issues, but I think that President Bush’s shadow is going to be larger on the race than anything else.”
Farrell received 48 percent of the vote against Shays two years ago. The former first selectwoman of Westport spent eight years serving the Fairfield County town, earning a reputation for being fiscally responsible
While Shays won the district in 2004, he lost in several key counties.
According to results reported by individual townships on election night and compiled by CNN, Shays lost in traditionally Democratic Bridgeport, his industrial home town, receiving only 9,946 votes to Farrell’s 23,760.
Shays won Weston and Wilton in 2004, but lost in Norwalk, Stamford, and Westport. But in all five jurisdictions, the votes were very close.
Gonzales said this year the biggest “question in the race is how willing is Congressman Shays to take the fight to Farrell.” He noted that “in the past [Shays] sort of championed himself on running a clean campaign and really staying above the fray.”
Gonzales said there are important differences between negative attack ads and less abrasive issue ads that compare the merits of a candidate’s stance on a specific issue. Over the years, Shays has stayed away from running either type of ad and, according to Sohn, the campaign will do the same this year.
“Are we going to run a negative campaign the way the Farrell campaign did two years ago? No,” Sohn said. “You’re not going to see that from Chris – that’s not who he is.”
Even while avoiding negative ads, Shays said, he has no problem addressing tough national concerns.
“Our country is facing some very difficult issues, and controversy is the enemy of the incumbent,” Shays said in a telephone interview. “I can’t tell you how willing I am to confront these issue.”
In a nationwide poll conducted in March by Quinnipiac University, 37 percent of those responding said they would be less likely to vote for a congressional candidate if the candidate supports Bush, 16 percent said they would be more likely to vote for that candidate and 45 percent said that it would make no difference.
Bush failed to carry Shays’ 4 th district in both the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, getting only 43 percent of the vote in 2000, and 46 percent of the vote in 2004 to John Kerry’s 52 percent.
When asked if he thinks the President’s low approval ratings will affect his chances for reelection, Shays said, “A president who is popular helps the ticket and a president who is unpopular hurts the ticket – so what do you think the answer is?”
But while most political experts agree with Shays, some say his reputation as a reform-minded candidate could keep him above the fray.
Donald Greenberg, chairman of the politics department at Fairfield University, said he believes “Chris always has an advantage” in the race. He said Shays will retain this advantage as long as things remain stable domestically and abroad.
“Chris is a powerful incumbent, he has a reputation of being moderate, he has a reputation of being independent, he’s well liked in the district by independents as well as by Republicans,” Greenberg said.
Lately, Shays’ moderate views on many social issues such as gay and abortion rights have been overshadowed by his unwavering support for the war in Iraq. Shays planned to visit Iraq in late April for the 12th time to monitor progress there. While still supporting the cause, Shays acknowledged America’s errors.
“We see some big mistakes that have made it very difficult,” Shays said. “We dug a deep hole, and both Joe [Lieberman] and I realize that.” But he added that in the “process of acknowledging what went wrong, what is going right is important.”
Farrell takes a much dimmer view of America’s policy in Iraq.
“With the war, obviously we’re teetering on the brink of civil war,” she said. “We have aided and abetted Al Qaeda and terrorists.” She called Baghdad “a disaster area” And she expressed skepticism about Shays’ multiple trips to Iraq.
“I’ve literally had people stop me and say, ‘Why does he keep going back to Iraq?’ ” Farrell said. “One has only to look at the news reports to know that things are highly volatile.”
Shays said one of his main efforts in the campaign will be to prevent any ambiguity about his congressional record. “Who is my opponent running against?… She’s not running against me she’s running against George Bush.”
“We’re going to basically not allow our opponent to be defining issues in a way that are totally off base,” Shays said. “I’m willing to sink or swim based on the reality of the issue, not based on my opponent’s efforts to distort me.”
In 2004, Shays responded to Farrell’s ad campaign by accusing her of distorting his record. Farrell criticized him for his positions on Iraq and local transportation issues and for what she called his “unwavering support of the president” and his agenda.
To counter her charges Shays filmed a commercial titled “Truth” in which he rejected Farrell’s criticisms.
In the ad, which is available for viewing on the candidate’s Web site, Shays responded broadly to Farrell’s allegations.
“My opponent’s negative attacks against me are not true,” he said sternly as the camera zoomed in on his face. “I don’t believe in negative campaigns. I believe in telling the truth.”
Shays, in the recent interview, said he would never call anything in the 2004 race “unfair,” but added that he finds many of Farrell’s campaign positions “irrelevant.”
Farrell, for her part, called the 2004 campaign relatively clean. In fact, she said, the two candidates engaged in “an exemplary debate.”
“Chris will complain that we attacked and distorted his record, but Chris just doesn’t like to be challenged,” Farrell said in an interview in Washington.
In many districts the 2006 elections could largely be a referendum on President Bush and the war in Iraq. Republican incumbents will be portrayed as strong supporters of President George Bush and his agenda. With the president’s approval ratings at an all-time low, this strategy could be successful for Democrats.
The nation’s political tide is changing and a Democratic wave has been building among the populace, according to some political experts.
To Gonzales, the question is not whether there will be a Democratic wave but “how big it is going to be.”
The wave, “doesn’t have to be very high for Chris Shays to lose.” In fact, he said, Shays “will be in the first crop of Republican incumbents to lose if there is a wave.”
Greenberg said of the congressional contest: “I don’t think it’s up to Diane or Chris. It’s mostly up to what happens with Bush.”
Shays said he continues to support U.S. efforts in Iraq because he believes that is the right thing to do. “I just know that I do the best job I can do and then I live with the consequences,” Shays said. “Obviously, I don’t want to lose a race, but I want to do my job.”
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