Money Might Not Be the Only Factor in the 2nd District
WASHINGTON, March 2 -Election Day is still eight months away, but the candidates in New Hampshire’s 2 nd Congressional District are already gearing up and gathering funds.
Even though Republican Rep. Charles Bass raised twice as much money as Democratic hopeful Paul Hodes last year, the November election may be determined by more than money.
According to filings submitted by the candidates to the Federal Election Commission, Hodes raised $113,930 and Bass raised $251,450 through Dec. 31.
However, with President Bush’s approval rating still hovering in the low forties, the Republican Party may be facing an uncomfortable election season.
“In an election year like this, where voters want change, where voters are concerned about ethics and incumbency suddenly evokes images of lobbyists and Tom DeLay, the incumbent’s financial advantage may not be worth what it is in a normal election cycle,” political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said.
Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan analysis of politics and elections, said it was apparent that Hodes would not be able to match Bass’s funds dollar for dollar, but as long as he generated enough money to make himself visible, he may have a chance.
Hodes will “try to ride a partisan Democratic wave that may well sweep across the country,” Rothenberg said. “It’s about having enough money, being at the right place at the right time, to take advantage of that time for a change.”
Interestingly, Hodes drew most of his funds from individual contributors (only $1,300 came from political action committees), but Bass received only 36 percent of his contributions from individual donations.
In New Hampshire’s 1 st Congressional District, Rep. Jeb Bradley, like Bass, is far ahead of his probable Democratic challenger, Gary Dodds. Bradley last year raised $313,724 to Dodd’s $89,745. Bradley’s seat is considered safer than Bass’, though neither is at the top of most lists of endangered incumbents.
If the partisan wave Rothenberg talks about does end up sweeping the country, it is not Bass or Bradley who should be the first to worry, he said. He cited Connecticut’s Robert Simmons, Nancy Johnson and Christopher Shays, and Pennsylvania’s Jim Gerlach as the most vulnerable Republican incumbents.
Nevertheless, he said, if a really big wave hits New Hampshire, Democrats would hope to be able to knock off Bass. “It would take a considerable wave for that to happen, but it’s possible,” he said.
Rothenberg pointed out that it is standard for the incumbent to raise considerably more money than the challenger and said that this is one of the reasons incumbents rarely lose.
“They begin with a financial advantage; sometimes their opponents don’t get enough money to even become credible,” Rothenberg said. “When their opponents do start raising money to become credible the incumbent with the big financial advantage just lowers the boom, runs lots of TV ads, radio spots, and crushes the opponent. So it’s a significant factor.”
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