Gas Prices to Decrease for Summer Travelers
By Kim Forrest
WASHINGTON–It looks as if the worst gasoline prices are behind us, though the best are not yet to come.
Gas prices already have peaked for the year, according to a forecast released Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration. But the average summer gas price will be 17 cents per gallon higher than last year’s, though similar to those of the summers of 2000 and 2001.
With the war in Iraq, political turmoil and oil strikes in Venezuela and ethnic strife in Nigeria, experts have been concerned that gas prices would rise, especially during the summer, when vacationers take to the roads.
EIA administrator Guy Caruso predicted that gas prices peaked year, at an average of $1.72 per gallon nationwide in mid-March.
The current national average is $1.63. But by the time summer rolls around, Caruso said, the average price should be down to $1.56 per gallon, and it is likely to decrease from there.
The price forecast for this summer is significantly lower than the all-time summer high of $2.77 (adjusted for inflation) in 1980.
Still, despite the projected prices, Caruso said, summer gas prices could range from $1.40 to $1.72 per gallon, because of record-high demand — 91.8 million barrels a day — and uncertainty in both the crude oil market and the domestic refining and distribution systems.
California really will be feeling the heat. Because the state banned the polluting gas additive MTBE and is replacing it with more expensive ethanol, Californians are expected to pay about 50 cents per gallon above the national average.
And while Iraq is not exporting oil and is not expected to for several months, countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased their output to keep prices down.
Still, Caruso said, America’s crude oil inventory is “at the low end of normal.”
In New Hampshire Wednesday, gas prices were slightly below the national average at $1.58 per gallon, down from $1.62 a month ago, according to the Web site, newhampshiregasprices.com. Still, these prices are higher than a year ago, when prices were $1.12 per gallon.
According to Lauri Klefos, director of the state’s Division of Travel and Tourism Development, 80 percent of visitors coming to the Granite State travel by car.
Still, Klefos said she did not think high gas prices would have a big impact on New Hampshire tourism this summer. It’s more important, she said, that people know they will be able to buy gas, something drivers were unsure of during one stretch of the 1970s.
“I think the interesting thing is most of the research shows us it’s not so much the price of gas as it is a stable a source of gas,” she said.
Klefos added that while gas costs more, it probably would not discourage people from traveling. Other national issues may, however.
“I think this summer, we’re all a little bit nervous because of the economy,” Klefos said. “But in New Hampshire we’re not worried about safety concerns…. People [may be] looking for a destination that’s not so urban and busy…. It’s the economy that I worry about.”
Still, she said, what most affects New Hampshire tourism is something that no one can control.
“The weather makes or breaks us all the time,” she said. “If we have a nice, hot, sunny summer it’ll be great.”
Published in The Keene Sentinel, in New Hampshire.
