Washington Speaks on Importance of N.H. Senate Race
WASHINGTON, Oct. 24, 2002–The New Hampshire Senate race between Rep. John E. Sununu (R-1st) and Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen “could make or break who controls the Senate,” Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst for The Cook Political Report, said.
Because both the Senate and the House are so closely divided, Duffy said, not only the New Hampshire race but also other races around the country could be historic.
“This is the closest both the House and Senate have been since 1932, so it’s really an election 70 years in the making,” said Duffy, whose Washington-based publication is regarded as a key source on political contests. “This election is a true reflection of a 50-50 America.”
However, the particular aggressiveness of the New Hampshire race is fairly typical of New England general elections, Duffy said, because the state doesn’t hold its primary election until September.
National representatives of both political parties agree that the New Hampshire Senate race is one of the keys to control of the Senate.
“With the Senate so closely divided, every race in the country is important,” Dan Allen, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) said. “New Hampshire is important because we don’t want to lose a seat already held by a Republican.”
In addition to fundraising, the NRSC has been working with Sununu’s campaign by running ads examining Shaheen’s record and issues “where she’s dropped the ball,” Allen said.
“Our objective is to regain the majority so that the Senate will work with President Bush as opposed to the Democrats who have blocked him,” he said.
While Republicans in Washington know the value of keeping Republican-held seats-the New Hampshire seat is held by GOP Sen. Bob Smith, whom Sununu defeated in the primary-Democrats see the race as a chance to gain a seat and maintain the Senate majority.
“The Republicans hold the White House, the House, they seem to have a slight edge in the Supreme Court,” said Tovah Ravitz, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).
The DSCC sees the New Hampshire race as one of the party’s “best opportunities to pick up a seat” because of Shaheen’s strong record as governor, Ravitz said. She added that Shaheen’s ability to speak out about her beliefs and to raise funds across the state-demonstrating a wide base of support-make for a great combination.
However, running as a governor can sometimes be a campaign detriment, Duffy said, because many governors from both parties have suffered in voters’ eyes as a result of the struggling economy. “Shaheen is probably not an exception to that rule,” she added.
Although Shaheen’s being a woman is not a defining factor in the race, Ravitz said, the DSCC’s experience has been “that a lot of women candidates are overthrowing these guys.” She named Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) as examples of women elected in 2000.
“We’ve had very good experience [with women candidates], and people obviously like to hear new voices,” Ravitz said.
Both Duffy and Norman Ornstein, resident scholar at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, said the New Hampshire Senate race is set apart from other races because of a write-in effort for Smith.
“When a race is close, every vote counts,” Duffy said. “I think when analyzing the race, you have to take it [a Smith write-in effort] pretty seriously.”
The race could be complicated not only by the write-in campaign, Ornstein said, but also by the divisive split in the Republican Party over Sununu’s battle with Smith.
Ornstein said a Republican win in New Hampshire and GOP control of the Senate would be important for that party’s judicial nominations.
“Control of the Senate means control of the agenda, which means that you get to see what happens and when,” Ornstein said.
Published in The Keene Sentinel, in New Hampshire.
