"STAR WARS": THE POLITICS OF DEFENSE
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questions, it might be good to throw other questions into the hopper.
LIONEL ABEL: No, I would like Mr. Pike to answer William Phil–
lips's question right now.
JOHN PIKE:
If
you could give the questions to me one at a time. I
wasn't taking notes. I have excellent answers for all of them. I just
need to know which answers I need to give.
WILLIAM PHILLIPS: One question is why is the possibility that
we won't have a perfect system an argument against the system so
long as we still have deterrence?
JOHN PIKE: That's precisely what the problem is and that's precis–
ely the problem that President Reagan recognized when he made his
speech. You recall that among his other comments he pointed out
that combinations of offensive and defensive forces could be regarded
as being threatening and no one wants that. For if we were to take
the existing situation and add leaky defenses to them the incentives
for going first, for launching a preemptive attack would be greatly
increased.
WILLIAM PHILLIPS: Why? I don't see that.
JOHN PIKE: Because the side that strikes first is going to be able to
significantly degrade the effectiveness of the other side's defenses.
WILLIAM PHILLIPS: So why don't the Russians strike right now
according to your argument?
LIONEL ABEL: Now we have no defense.
WILLIAM PHILLIPS: You've just demonstrated that it would be a
good idea to strike now.
JOHN PIKE: The reason is because the Soviets don't have a defense.
The asymmetry is that where you have the types of offensive forces
both sides currently have deployed, in conjunction with leaky
defenses, there's a great advantage to going first because you can
degrade the effectiveness of the other side's defense and you can also
significantly degrade the effectiveness of the other side's retaliatory
forces, using your own offensive weapons as well as using your own
ballistic missiles defense.
WILLIAM PHILLIPS: But you haven't answered my question .
JOHN PIKE: So in a situation where both sides deployed both of–
fensive forces and leaky defenses, if you strike first, you're going to
be able to destroy much of his retaliatory forces, using your offensive
weapons, and be able to intercept most of his remaining retaliation
using your own defensive weapons.
LIONEL ABEL: That's even more true now.
JOHN PIKE: Today, there is absolutely nothing that the Soviet
