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WILLIAM PHILLIPS
that case we would have to increase the number of danger-signals
to
the
point where the whole question would lose its meaning.
What makes it particularly difficult to foresee the political direction
of Senator Goldwater and of the Republican party is that the middle–
-of-the-roadism of the country
whi~h
transforms the face of Senator
Goldwater into that of the guy next door also muffles and obscures the
mass of general opinion. The real meaning of the polls is just the
opposite of the claims they make; what they show is that most people
don't know what they
think.
Because our parties do not sufficiently
reflect genuine political and economic differences, people rarely get a
clear shot at the issues. Hence, when someone like Senator Goldwater
comes along it is almost impossible to tell what people think he thinks
and what they feel about him. I find myself swaying in my estimate
of his chances of election not on the basis of any facts or meaningful
impressions but on whether I am feeling generally optimistic or pes–
simistic. In the past one always thought the radical Right was a haven
for cranks and nuts, but when traditional conservatism is invaded
by the radical Right it is very difficult to predict not only the vote but
the political consequences for the future.
There is also another sense in which one might speak of the political
unpredictability of the country, which is built into its very structure.
If
there is no natural outlet for programs, ideas, frustrations, discontents,
in existing party platforms and vistas, then political expression is bound
to take on a spasmodic, explosive, violent form, particularly in times of
crisis. Hence we might suddenly find the radical Right spurting in power
and influence, without going through all the steps our past experience
has prescribed for its development.
So far, the radical Right-and Senator Goldwater-have been
trading on two critical situations, the tensions produced by the civil rights
movement and the stalemate with Russia. As for the so-called white
back-lash, I do not see it as a permanent basis for an anti-Negro party.
Whiteness is still not a political color here. But the frustration of the
anti-Communists is here to stay, and will probably increase as the power
.of the Soviet Union .or China
grows.
But there is really no altemative–
besides dropping the bomb-to the policies of Kennedy or Johnson,
because the possibilities are limited by objective circumstances and the
demands of sanity. (Greater intelligence can't hurt, but doesn't mean
more choices.) So the crazy Right has the choice either of coming out
openly for nuclear war or continuing to double-talk about acting tough
without saying just how.
If
we are to
go
on past experience at all, I don't
think the American people will vote for their own destruction. Nor is