A NEW KIND OF WAR
553
Although the critical awareness is growing, not everyone who
should really understands the true nature of the competitive situation.
A few years ago,
Fortune
concluded a survey of executive opinion on
crucial issues of the day with this awesome statement: "Only one
executive voiced concern over 'the real possibility of conflict with the
USSR.' Only one declared he was worried over 'Communist world
domination.''' At about the same time, speaking of the power and
achievements of Russian technology at a conference held shortly after
Sputnik, Professor Jerome Wiesner said: "When I really feel gloomy
I think that five years from now they will be obviously superior to us
in every area. But when I am optimistic I feel it .will take ten years
for them to achieve this position."
One of the problems encountered in comparing the two economies
is the necessity of using Soviet statistics. But we can bypass this dif–
ficulty by relying on the public statements of Alan W. Dulles-state–
ments issued when he was C.LA. head. I think it is self-evident that
he is not to be doubted on the upside.
In the spring of 1959, Mr. Dulles delivered an extremely important
and revealing speech-but its sting and import were somewhat lost
because it was headlined as a counter-statement to Khrushchev's boast
that the Soviets would equal our production by 1970. Mr. Dulles said
they wouldn't. He expressed the opinion that, beginning with forty
per cent of our production in 1959, the Soviet Union might achieve
sixty per cent of U.S. production by 1970. But he added: "By 1965
Soviet output of some basic raw materials and some industrial products
will be approaching, and in a few cases exceeding, that of the United
States. Most prominently, these products will be the kind that are
needed for industrialization in the less developed countries."
As for ratio of growth, Mr. Dulles said that in the seven years through
1958 "Soviet industry has grown at the annual rate of nine and one–
half per cent"-which is the C.LA.'s "reconstruction and deflation
of Soviet data." This rate was three times ours during the period, and
he asserted clearly that if our rate of growth remains that low-be–
tween two per cent and three per cent a year-"the United States will
be virtually committing economic suicide." This statement was made
by the head of our secret intelligence agency: it may well be looked
back upon one day as the great turning point in the thinking of our
elite groups. Mr. Dulles, incidentally, did not rely on GNP figures
without a breakdown: one of his examples in comparing the two
economies was to point out that "while the Soviets last year were pro-
