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PARTISAN REVIEW
since about the time of the First World War, in contrast to earlier
periods, the industrial countries have been exhibiting a slower rate of
population growth than the undeveloped areas as a whole, the lead
among the latter incidentally being held
by
Latin America, at least
percentage-wise: in absolute figures, China is the biggest bloc, with an
official count of over 600 million and every prospect of reaching the
billion mark before the end of the century. By the same date, according
to some recent computations, the total population of the Western
hemisphere, north and south, will grow from some 400 million in 1960
to some 900 million in 2000. (Cf.
Annals of the American Academy
of Political and Social Science,
March 1958.) Taking a somewhat
earlier and less speculative date, the Population Branch of the United
Nations estimates that between 1960 and 1975 the population of North
America will rise from 197 million to 240 million, that of Latin America
from 206 million to 304 million, Europe (outside Russia) merely from
424 million to 476 million, and Asia by contrast from 1,620 million to
2,210 million. It is the latter figure, plus that for Latin America, which
now holds the attention of political scientists. There is little doubt that
Europe and North America will maintain their secular march towards
a steadily mounting level of well-being, though within eastern and
southern Europe there are regions where progress may be slow. Latin
America presents a less hopeful picture, and when one comes to Asia
and Mrica it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that what is now
happening in these regions is largely the inevitable, though long delayed,
consequence of steadily rising population pressure upon inadequate re–
sources. Some Asian countries, notably Japan, have managCi!d the transi–
tion to industrialism so as to expand their resources just in time to
catch up with population growth and even surpass it; others have
not been so lucky. In particular, China, India and Egypt have been
caught by the "population explosion" at a very awkward stage in their
economic development, and although one would like to dissent from
crude anti-imperialism of the Moscow-Peking variety, it is undeniable
that India and Egypt have (to put it mildly) not been helped by the
kind of political and economic regime that went with foreign domina–
tion.
The battle is not yet lost, but if India, the Middle East, and North
Mrica are to retain their links with the Western world, we shall have
to bestir ourselves. This is not to suggest that the backward countries
can in this century be brought up to Western standards of living. Such
an expectation is unrealistic. 'Western Europe and North America have
headed the parade for a very long time, and by now they are too far
