G,
L.
Arnold
THE POLITICS OF 1970*
The title chosen for this essay accords in at least one respect
with a forecast now frequently made by official and private study
groups: it assumes that by 19'70 the technological revolution under way
since 1945 will have brought about a drastic rearrangement of the
military and political institutions inherited from the preceding era. This
is the burden of a report recently published on behalf of the National
Planning Association, under the suggestive title "1970 Without Arms
Control." From this document one may learn, e.g., that during the com–
ing decade the world will gradually traverse the somewhat indeter–
minate stage of military technology with which statesmen and scientists
are presently struggling; we shall then have attained a higher level, with
rockets taking the place of aircraft, and at most fifteen minutes warn–
ing of impending attack by enemy missiles. Note that by then the major
powers are expected to have developed automatic retaliation systems
capable of going into action even if there is no one alive to press the
button, or indeed to benefit from its use. In the words of the report,
"it is a disturbing fact that while weapons grow increasingly effective,
they also tend to outgrow previous control possibilities." "Plans for a
control that works in one stage of technology will be rendered useless
by later developments." As for the chances of voluntary assent to ef–
fective international control on the part of the powers, the report does
not rate them very highly.
Notwithstanding the gloomy tone of these and similar predictions,
the general public continues to manifest a marked degree of stoicism.
This is probably due as much to indifference as to helplessness in the
face of increasingly alarming statements now uttered with growing fre–
quency by reputable scientists and others in authority. The element of
• This article is based on a guest lecture delivered at Brown University, under
the auspices of the Department of Sociology.
