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How was it possible for Punxsutawney Phil to have seen his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter, if it was snowing at Gobbler's Knob on February 2? While I know of "sun showers," where the sun shines while it's raining, I believe the phenomenon is much less common during periods of snow and doubt that such an event coincided with Phil's annual prognostication.

In actuality, weather has very little to do with Punxsutawney Phil's predictions, which hover at an unimpressive 39 percent accuracy rate. "For people looking for relief after winter," says Anthony Barrand, associate professor, The University Professors, "signs of spring were important. The natural human instinct against disappointment is to believe that even if it's sunny at the midpoint of winter, it still may be a while before spring truly arrives. So you let the animals that go underground for the winter do the forecasting. They know if it's too soon to come out."

The Delaware Indians, who first settled in Pennsylvania in an area halfway between the Allegheny and the Susquehanna rivers, considered groundhogs to be their honorable ancestors. (In fact, the name Punxsutawney comes from the Indian name ponksad-uteney, or town of the sandflies.)

"There are more than 100 years of records on shadow or no shadow as it relates to the groundhog," says Barrand, "and the history is connected to Candlemas Day."

The German settlers who arrived in the area in the 1700s brought with them the tradition of recognizing the Christian holy day of Candlemas Day. In Europe, the clergy would bless candles on this day and distribute them to the people to help them through the darkness of winter; the people would then place a lighted candle in each window of their home.

Candlemas Day comes at the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. "This day," says Barrand, "is a cross-quarter day -- the midpoint of winter that includes the evening between February 1 and February 2." Superstition held that if the sun came out on February 2, Candlemas Day, the second half of winter would be stormy and cold.

The earliest American reference to Groundhog Day was in an 1841 diary entry of Morgantown, Berks County (Pennsylvania), storekeeper James Morris. He wrote: "Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas Day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks' nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate."

Pennsylvania's official celebration of Groundhog Day began on February 2, 1886, with a proclamation in The Punxsutawney Spirit by the newspaper's editor, Clymer Freas: "Today is Groundhog Day and up to the time of going to press the beast has not seen its shadow." The groundhog was given the name "Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary," and his hometown of Gobbler's Knob was dubbed, "the weather capital of the world."

Today's Phil weighs 15 pounds and thrives on dog food and ice cream in a climate-controlled home at the Punxsutawney library. To complicate the accuracy of his weather predictions, he is pulled out of his heated burrow under an artificial tree stump at 7:25 a.m. each February 2 to a raucous crowd and the glare of a national media spotlight. Despite the fact that such conditions (and not whether he's seen his shadow) may influence his decision to return to his burrow -- thereby predicting six more weeks of winter -- his prediction for the end of winter 2001 has thus far been accurate. We have had a major snowstorm and blasts of bitterly cold wind; more snow and sleet are on the way.

"Ask the Bridge" welcomes readers’ questions. E-mail bridge@bu.edu or write to "Ask the Bridge," 10 Lenox Street, Brookline, MA 02446.

23 February 2001
Boston University
Office of University Relations