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counterparts. While open-access journals will publish the bulk
of day-to-day scientific research, she thinks there will always
be a place for “research magazines” like Science and
Nature. These journals, with a wide breadth of topics and a diverse
paying audience, are taking a watchful waiting stance towards
open-access publishing. “Switching to open-access now would
be the demise of the journal,” says Katrina Kelner, deputy
editor of Science. “We would have to do it cautiously and
in a responsible way.”
Today, PLoS and BioMed Central look like online versions of traditional
journals, but in the future, the whole concept of a journal may
change. Scientists could simply deposit their papers in their
institutional archival database. As long as they used compatible
software to publish it, anyone with an internet connection could
use a Google-like search engine to find it. A “journal”
might be like a virtual Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval –
it would tell readers something about the topic, how it relates
to the field, and perhaps most importantly, its general quality,
but would not physically exist as a bound collection of research
papers. Also like PLoS and BioMed Central journals, the next wave
of open-access journals will likely implement peer review in the
traditional way. Eventually, publishers and scientists will have
to figure out how to use changing technologies to adapt the peer
review tradition to journals of the future. In the next decade
or two, utilitarian search engines and high-speed connections
may replace the traditional glossy pages of the venerable scientific
journal.
“I foresee a true knowledge network rather than simple ‘electronic
publication’,” says Ginsparg. “Most of the technical
pieces are already in place, but the sociological obstacles, as
usual, are the most difficult to overcome.” r
photo credit: ryan olson
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