PAUL HOLLANDER
Thinking about Kosovo
in Northampton, Massachusetts
and Budapest, Hungary
I
N
LATE MAY
[999,
when
r
began writing this article, it was by no
means clear how and when NATO's airwar against Milosevic would
end. The consensus seemed to be that it would end in some sort of
a stalemate; or worse, that NATO would not achieve its objectives: the
refugees would not return, NATO troops wouldn't enter the province in
substantial numbers, and Yugos lavia would keep effective control over
it. By August
1999,
however, it was clear that things had turned out
quite differently.
The Kosovo crisis coincided with a trip I made to Budapest, enabling
me to reflect in a new setting on the unanticipated outcome of the air
campaign, the American and Hungarian responses to it, and the moral
and psychological questions it has raised. The larger issues of the
Kosovo conflict include our notorious and chronic inability to predict
the outcome and byproducts of major historical-political events. West–
ern policymakers had not anticipated that the bombing campaign would
accelerate and intensify "ethnic cleansing," or that Milosevic would be
able to endure over two months of bombardment.
It
was assumed that
air strikes by themselves would not compel the Serbs to give in to NATO
demands.
Many mistakes were made in the conduct of the war, despite its unex–
pected success. These included the NATO declaration that no ground
troops would be used; the initial "pinprick" bombardment; NATO's
going to exceptional lengths to avoid casualties, at the expense of the
lives of Albanian and Serb civilians; and the withholding of support
from the Kosovo Liberation Army, the only force on the ground that
could have slowed down, if not prevented, the ethnic cleansing.
Nonetheless, NATO prevailed in the end: Milosevic withdrew his
forces, NATO troops entered Kosovo, and the refugees returned. Unre–
solved issues remain, including the future status of and conditions
within Kosovo as well as the survival of the Milosevic regime; a variety
of moral, political, and historical questions also deserve further atten–
tion.
