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lenges confronting it, "it will suffer the consequences." Kennedy does go
as far as saying that conditions in Africa are likely to stay bad and that the
prospects of the former Soviet Union are not rosy either: "The Western
democracies might be unwise to assume that the collapse of the 'evil
empire' is going to be an unqualified advantage to themselves." Whoever
made such assumptions? Or elsewhere: "In the light of the broad global
trends discussed in the preceding chapters, we should not be surprised if
further internal and regional conflicts break out." And "simply because
we do not know the future, it is impossible to say with certainty, whether
global trends will lead to terrible disaster or be diverted by astonishing
advances in human adaptation." If awards were given for popularizing the
uncertainty principle in history, this book would rank high among the
contenders.
Kennedy can certainly not be accused of sensationalism. His book has
been ridiculed by reviewers for the frequent "on one hand - on the
other" and "it remains to be seen" approach and, generally speaking, the
constant hedging of bets. This is a little unfair, for the only prudent way
of writing a book like this is to point to various scenarios. Kennedy was
not well served by his publishers, who announced that he would tell us
who would be the winners and the losers in the decades to come. He is a
very circumspect man: If the present growth rate in China will continue
as in recent years, progress will be assured. But then he reminds us that
economic gains might be swallowed up by population growth - which
means that all bets are off.
In the case of India and China, the author does make a policy rec–
ommendation - the only logical solution (to assist China and India in
their race against time) is for the developing nations to help them with
capital, technology, and brainpower. But this is not a very realistic or
helpful suggestion. Even if the issue would figure much higher on the
Western and Japanese agenda, the needs greatly exceed the means of the
developed countries - especially at a time of recession. Did the author not
know this when he made his logical proposal?
Altogether, this book makes the impression that the original idea
came from a publisher rather than an author, and that the latter gradually
realized that he faced an impossible mission. The public likes to read
books in which either the corning apocalypse or a brilliant future for
mankind are outlined with utter conviction. If Toynbee or Spengler or
their imitators had sounded their trumpets less certainly, who would have
listened to them? Kennedy's book is sensible on the whole, but there are
too many platitudes, and he does not know any better than the next man
the answers to the questions he poses. It may still be of some use in view
of stating some cardinal problems and also because of the rich statistical
material it provides. But I doubt whether the author will be eager to en-
