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multinational corporations on developing countries, and other such
topics.
It
is in many ways a laudable, perhaps heroic enterprise to deal
with such broad topics in an age of growing specialization among
historians and political scientists. But it is also a high-risk venture. No one
can possibly be equally at home in all the disciplines covered by Kennedy;
ideally such an undertaking should be written by a committee, in which
case it would probably be unreadable.
Furthermore, there is no certainty that its conclusions would be any
more reliable. For predictions about demographic and technological
development are as risky as those about economic and political trends.
Yesteryear's comments on America's relative economic decline make cu–
rious reading when the German and Japanese economies are in recession,
and United States industrial production alone among the developed
countries shows an annual increase of more than four percent. The
American unemployment rate is 7.1 percent and falling slightly; those of
Germany and Sweden, let alone the other European countries, are higher.
Perhaps everyone has entered a phase of relative decline. Kennedy could
not have foreseen this, just as he did not foresee in 1988 the impending
demise of the Soviet empire. Perhaps the present trends are as misleading
as those of the past, but the question arises: if the immediate future is in–
scrutable, how reliable are the forecasts concerning the more distant one?
How certain can one be as to who will be winning and losing in the years
to come?
The issues raised by Kennedy are all very real. In fact, there is perhaps
an excess of caution in this book, for instance, in describing the woes of
American education and health care. But all this has been said many times
before. In fact, there is little in this book that attentive readers of the
weekly
Economist,
fortified by such statistical handbooks as
World Resources
199011, World Population Prospects,
and
Development Report,
will not have
read before. Towards the end of his book, Kennedy reaches the
unstartling conclusion that "as the Cold War fades away we face not a
new world order, but a troubled and fractured planet, whose problems
deserve the serious attention of politicians and public alike." Is it hopeless?
Not quite; it may still be possible for intelligent men and women to lead
their societies through the complex task of preparing for the century
ahead. But how could they do this if, according to Kennedy, nothing is
certain except that we face innumerable uncertainties? "Interventions
could produce their own unforeseen and unintended changes."
Do we know how many developing nations will be able to follow
East Asia's growth? No, says Kennedy, it is impossible to tell. Can we be
certain that Europe will be better off in the next century? Yes - if it man–
ages to solve its problems. But if it does not resolve the cluster of chal-
