THE TENDENCY OF HISTORY
375
The world is made up of a few immense forces, each with an
organization that corresponds with its strength. The church stands
first; and at the outset we must assume that the church will not and
cannot accept any science of history, because science, by its defini·
tion, must exclude the idea of a personal and active providence.
The state stands next; and the hostility of the state would be as·
sured toward any system or science that might not strengthen its
arm. Property is growing more and more timid and looks with
extreme
j~alousy
on any new idea that may weaken vested rights.
Labor is growing more and more self-confident and looks with
contempt on all theories that do not support its own. Yet we can–
not conceive of a science of history that would not, directly or
indirectly, affect all these vast social forces.
Any
science assumes a necessary sequence of cause and effect,
a force resulting in motion which cannot be other than what it is.
Any science of history must be absolute, like other sciences, and
must fix with mathematical certainty the path which human society
has got to follow. That path can hardly lead toward the interests
of all the great social organizations. We cannot conceive that it
should help at the same time the church and the state, property and
communism, capital and poverty, science and religion, trade and
art. Whatever may be its orbit, it must, at least for a time, point
away from some of these forces toward others which are regarded
as hostile. Conceivably, it might lead off in eccentric lines away
from them all, but by no power of our imagination can we conceive
that it should lead toward them all.
Although I distrust my own judgment and look earnestly for
guidance to those who are younger than I and closer to the move–
ment of the time, I cannot be wholly wrong in thinking that a
change has come over the tendency of liberal thought since the
middle of the century. Darwin led an intellectual revival much
more hopeful than any movement that can now be seen in Europe,
except among the socialists. Had history been converted into a
science at that time it would perhaps have taken the form of
cheerful optimism which gave to Darwin's conclusions the charm
of a possible human perfectibility. Of late years the tone of Euro–
pean thought has been distinctly despondent among the classes
which were formerly most hopeful.
If
a science of history were
established today on the lines of its recent development I greatly
