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A
distance learning first at BU
BU to lead in creating space weather forecasting model
By Brian Fitzgerald
On July 1, 2002, a massive solar eruption -- more than 30 times the diameter of the earth -- blasted away from the sun. Luckily, the “belch,” which was photographed by a satellite and widely reported in the media, wasn’t aimed at our planet. But sometimes this type of activity bombards the space near earth with energetic particles and other radiation, disturbing its magnetosphere and disrupting everything from astronauts’ space walks to the functioning of telecommunications satellites and power grids.
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| An “eruptive prominence” (lower left corner) on the sun showed up in a picture taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite on July 1, 2002. It wasn’t headed for earth, but when similar eruptions are aimed toward our planet, they can create space weather that causes a significant amount of aurora and other geomagnetic activity. Photo courtesy of NASA/ESA |
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As we grow more reliant on technology in space -- and more susceptible
to disruptions from space weather -- the National Science Foundation (NSF)
has made forecasting these solar storms a priority. It recently named
BU to lead the new Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM),
a $20 million, multi-institutional NSF Science and Technology Center.
The NSF established the Science and Technology Center program in 1987
to fund important fundamental research efforts that also create educational
opportunities, encourage technology transfer, and provide innovative approaches
to interdisciplinary research challenges. CISM’s goal is to create
a physics- based computer model capable of providing advance warning of
potentially harmful space weather events.
“Within this goal,” says W. Jeffrey Hughes, a CAS astronomy
professor and CISM director, “we will not only do new science, but
we will also build a robust and operationally useful forecasting tool
for both civilian and military space weather forecasters, and create novel
education programs that will give students at all levels a better understanding
of the geospace environment.”
CISM, which is beginning operations at BU this fall, consists of research
groups from eight other universities and several government and nonprofit
research organizations and commercial firms. Scientists from the consortium,
who gathered at BU September 16 to 18 for an organizational meeting, want
the computer model to include all the elements that make up space weather.
“Current predictions are based on techniques analogous to those
used by meteorologists 50 years ago,” says Charles Goodrich, deputy
director of CISM and director of the University of Maryland’s Advanced
Visualization Laboratory. “We are confident that with the knowledge
base and the advanced computer technology now available we can create
the first integrated space weather model within the next 10 years.”
As a first step, CISM will create a single comprehensive model by coupling
existing submodels, several of which have been developed by members of
the consortium. This early effort will be refined over time as it is tested
against empirical observations from many sources, both ground-based, such
as CISM-member Stanford’s Wilcox Solar Observatory, and space-based,
such as NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer and HESSI (high energy
solar spectroscopic imager) satellites. The model will evolve and grow
as new knowledge and understanding of the underlying physics are developed.
Space weather can be beautiful: it is charged particles from the sun that
cause atoms and molecules of the earth’s upper atmosphere to give
off the light that forms the aurora. But it can also be devastating. For
example, in 1989 a magnetic storm caused massive power outages in Quebec
and much of the northeastern United States. In 1998 a solar storm made
the Galaxy 4 satellite fail, disabling 80 percent of the pager systems
in the United States. And during the Gulf War, severe ionospheric perturbations
significantly disrupted communications and navigation by global positioning
systems (GPS). The destructive effect of solar activity has even been
cited in the premature ending of the Skylab mission in 1970.
For years, space weather forecasters have issued warnings of large magnetic
storms whenever they detected a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the sun.
CMEs consist of giant clouds of energetic electrons and strong magnetic
fields, traveling from the sun at up to two million miles an hour. But
scientists have been unable to tell with any certainty whether a CME would
affect earth when it arrived four days later, or whether it would bypass
the planet. CISM aims to help forecasters improve the accuracy of space
weather predictions by building a physics-based numerical simulation model
that describes in detail the space environment between the sun and the
earth.
Every 11 years, in a predictable cycle, the sun becomes more active. At
high activity, during the so-called solar maximum, there are more CMEs,
and a greater chance of solar storms affecting earth. It was during the
last peak in the solar cycle, in 1989, that Quebec was plunged into darkness.
We’re nearing the end of such a cycle right now, but intense solar
activity can also flare up unexpectedly during a solar minimum. Such a
storm could put astronauts aboard the International Space Station at risk
of receiving potentially lethal dosages of radiation, especially those
on a space walk.
With the establishment of space weather models, however, scientists will
be better able to tell when power companies should isolate vulnerable
parts of their grid system, when GPS users should switch to alternate
navigation systems, when satellites should be shut down, and when astronauts
should relocate to safer quarters.
“We’re very pleased to be partnering with the National Science
Foundation because of its strong commitment to producing practical outcomes
that will be of value to the nation in a number of ways, and also because
of its strong emphasis on education and knowledge-transfer,” says
BU Provost Dennis Berkey. “We believe that many students and other
citizens will learn much about space weather and the enterprise of science
itself as a result of this project.”
CISM consists of scientists from BU, Alabama A&M, Dartmouth College,
Rice University, Stanford University, UC-Berkeley, the University of Colorado–Boulder,
the University of Maryland, the University of Texas at El Paso, the National
Center for Atmospheric Research, the Space Environment Center, and industry
partners interested in space weather research. Participating from the
CAS astronomy department are Nancy Crooker and George Siscoe, both research
professors, and Professor Harlan Spence, the department chairman. Other
BU researchers include Peter Garik, an SED associate professor, Roscoe
Giles, an ENG electrical and computing engineering professor, and Claudio
Rebbi, a CAS physics professor and director of the Center for Computational
Science.
CISM is one of six new Science and Technology Centers the NSF announced
it will begin funding this year. The $20 million grant, which spans the
next five years, is renewable for another five years.
20 September 2002
Boston University
Office of University Relations