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Musharraf faces uphill battle reforming Pakistan, says IR prof

By David J. Craig

When Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf announced last fall that his country would help the United States in its war on terrorism, it was just the first in a series of dramatic moves he would make to steer Pakistan away from theocracy. Since then, Musharraf has banned several Islamic militant groups that support the Jihad, granted non-Muslims full voting rights for the first time since 1978, and promised to hold parliamentary elections in October, guaranteeing one-fifth of the seats to women.

Juergen Kleiner, a CAS professor of international relations, who was the German ambassador to Pakistan from 1995 to 1998, said in a lecture last month that Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf must take control of his nation's spy organization, the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency, before he can deliver democratic reforms. The address was part of the Executive Briefings in International Relations, sponsored by the CAS department of international relations and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Photo by Kalman Zabarsky

Because Musharraf is an army general in a nation where the military wields tremendous political power, some observers believe that he is in a stronger position to implement reforms than his civilian predecessors, such as former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, from whom Musharraf seized power in 1999. But Pakistan "is a long way from working toward democracy in a serious way," according to Juergen Kleiner, a CAS professor of international relations, who was the German ambassador to Pakistan from 1995 to 1998, because its government is unstable and its population is politically unorganized.

Kleiner discussed Pakistan's recent history and its outlook for the future at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston last month as part of the Executive Briefings in International Relations, sponsored by the CAS department of international relations and the bank. The monthly lecture series was established last semester to promote discussions about international affairs in the aftermath of September 11. Kleiner was a German diplomat for 34 years and is the author of Korea: A Century of Change (World Science Publishing, 2002).

"The tensions between ethnic groups, between religious groups, and between social classes in Pakistan have never been balanced," said Kleiner, who noted that since Pakistan became an independent state in 1947, even elected leaders have tended to resort to authoritarian rule to maintain order. (The country has officially been an Islamic republic since 1981.) "So the government system of Pakistan is characterized by fragmentation," he continued.

Nowhere is that fragmentation more evident than in Musharraf's tense relationship with the nation's spy organization, the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), which had worked closely with the Taliban since the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and is believed to have acted as Pakistan's liaison to Islamic militant and terrorist groups. Musharraf began an overhaul of the ISI in January, firing many of its top generals, but some observers say that rogue ISI agents may still be assisting terrorists covertly. According to Kleiner, the ISI even helped ship ammunition and funds to the Taliban after Musharraf officially broke ties with it in September.

"The ISI has become a state within a state," he said. "Since the end of the Soviet occupation, it has decided Pakistan's policy toward Afghanistan from the shadows. Various prime ministers, and now Musharraf, have tried to exert control over the ISI, but to no avail."

In a further attempt to bring Pakistan's military under civilian control, Kleiner said, Musharraf recently closed down the ISI units that dealt with Islamic militants in Afghanistan and those operating in Kashmir to oppose Indian control of the Muslim territory. "These orders are fine, but to be implemented Musharraf needs the support of his generals and of the public," he said. "And he will have to fight against two accusations - that he sold out the Taliban, and that he sold out the Kashmiris."

Wresting control of Pakistan from Islamic fundamentalist forces has been made more difficult, Kleiner said, by the fact that Pakistan has no organized electorate - the government is dominated by military figures and rich businessmen.

"What's missing is a civilian society," he said. "For the moment, Musharraf has made the right decisions. He has promised to introduce a democratic form of government by October, although I think it is somewhat risky to trust Pakistani leaders if they announce something like that. So we will see if he starts on the local level, to develop some sort of grassroots democratic attitudes, but no doubt Pakistan is far away from that.

"There is not much the United States and its allies can do besides give economic aid and advice and encouragement," he added. "It is up to the people of Pakistan to decide whether they finally want to choose the path to democracy."

The next session of the Executive Briefings in International Relations will be held on Thursday, March 28. The topic will be China. For more information, contact Jain Yu at 358-0195 or visit www.bu.edu/ir/execbrief.html.

8 March 2002
Boston University
Office of University Relations