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UNI prof says war likely if United States identifies a state behind terrorist attacks

By David J. Craig

The terrorist attacks that killed thousands of people at New York City's World Trade Center and at the Pentagon on September 11 seem like the sort of violent acts often organized by fanatical independent religious groups such as that of Saudi exile and militant Osama bin Laden.

	Uri Ra'anan, a UNI professor, CAS professor of international relations, and director of BU's Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy, says it is likely that the United States will go to war if it can identify any nations that played a part in the September 11 attacks that killed thousands of people at New York City's World Trade Center and at the Pentagon. Photo by Kalman Zabarsky

But Uri Ra'anan, a University professor, CAS professor of international relations, and director of BU's Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy, says that Tuesday's interwoven series of plane hijackings and crashes required a bank of intelligence that only another nation could have supplied. If the United States can identify a state that supported or coordinated the attacks, he says, it likely will declare war on that country.

Three hours after the first airliner hit the World Trade Center Tuesday morning, Ra'anan, who has published several books about Soviet affairs and the history of international diplomacy, spoke to the BU Bridge.

Bridge: Assuming terrorists were behind this morning's disasters, do you have a hunch what group might be responsible?

Ra'anan: One fact we can be reasonably sure of is that this was a terrorist attack that had state sponsorship, but I don't want to speculate yet which groups might have been involved. An isolated, independent terrorist group could not have had the intelligence infrastructure for a sophisticated, coordinated, and carefully prepared and implemented series of attacks like this.

Bridge: What might a terrorist group or rogue state hope to accomplish with such an attack?

Ra'anan: There are two separate ways of hurting us with terrorism, and this morning both of them were applied. One is arousing panic and fear amongst civilians and creating doubt as to our nation's ability to defend its citizens. The second is to hit actual nerve centers, which in this case is the Pentagon. The overall effect of this is to paralyze our communications and to give us a foretaste of what might be done in the future. Basically, the goal is to intimidate us and to say, 'You're a strong power, but look, we can hurt you.'

But it's not for anything we do or say that this happened; it's for what we are. We're a flagship of enlightened Western civilization in the 21st century. There is a whole world outside that is reactionary against us for being an open, democratic, enlightened society.

Bridge: How might the United States respond?

Ra'anan: If it becomes clear that a state in fact organized the attacks or provided intelligence and support for this act of war, and it clearly is an act of war, then we will be in a state of war with that state. In terms of how these events have affected us as a nation, this is worse than Pearl Harbor because while Pearl Harbor was a military attack on a military target, however unjustified it may have been, this was an attack on a whole people.

It may not be easy to establish links between the attacks and a specific state because there will have been some effort to obscure the traces of involvement. In addition, the United States has a tendency to want to deal with international relations in accordance with the norms that are applied in courts -- that is, by requiring there be no reasonable doubt about who is at fault in a matter. But in a situation like this, that may be asking for too much.

There will be a lot of debate in the next few weeks on the subject of war between those who say we should have no reasonable doubt about who committed this and those who say we know with a high enough degree of certainty. But if it becomes clear that what has occurred had state sponsorship, I don't see how we can avoid war with that state.

Bridge: Can the United States do more to protect itself from terrorists?

Ra'anan: I was surprised to discover that there is not a no-flight zone over some of the nerve centers of our nation's security and defense. I'd always taken for granted that there was. There is one over the White House, but not over the Pentagon. And these nerve centers happen to be in the direct flight path of commercial planes.

Bridge: So you think we should do more?

Ra'anan: Well, it just shows how difficult it is to deal with terrorism, especially with military measures alone. For instance, more could be done to punish states that support terrorist activity, with sanctions, and the reason that hasn't been done is we've had no solidarity from our allies on these matters. Everyone says that if it's not affecting me, let the other guy take care of it and I'll worry about myself.

Bridge: Will today's attacks inspire more cooperation among nations in combating terrorism?

Ra'anan: I doubt it. But hopefully it will change us and make us more resolute. We're capable of that. There is an apocryphal statement in the Pearl Harbor film Tora! Tora! Tora! where a Japanese admiral says, 'I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and instilled in him a terrible resolve.'

Bridge: Has the giant been awakened again?

Ra'anan: I hope so.

14 September 2001
Boston University
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