STEPHEN POLLARD
163
consti tuency-based House that can (as it did in 1997) give a party wi th a
minority of the national vote a massive Parliamentary majority.
Proportional Representation is an obsession of bookish liberals that had–
has-no popular resonance. But its attractiveness to a party in opposi tion
is obviously a lot greater than to a government with a landslide majority
of 179. So it adopted a tactic beloved ot the former Labour prime mini s–
ter Harold Wilson, who used royal commissions to kick difficult issues into
touch, on the basis that they took "a minute to set up and a decade to
report." The Jenkins Commission did that job for a year, and has just
reported. Roy Jenkins,
I'lI/iuCII(1' grisl'
ot liberal opinion, recommended an
oh-so-Bri tish compromise, involving a Commons that would be partly
constituency-based and partly drawn trom national lists. But where it all
goes next is anyone's guess. The only thing that is certain is that the next
election-and most likely the one after that-will be fought on the tradi–
tional system.
The big one, though, is Scotland. Throughout the eighteen years of
Conservative government, the Scots were effectively ruled by an alien
power. Even at its most disreputable and disorganized in England, Labour
remained overwhelmingly the majority party across the border. So
al though the push for devol ution-a separate Scottish parliament wi th a
large dose of selt-government-was genuine and clear (confirmed by the
74.3 percent that voted "yes" in last year's referendum), a more subtle
reading of this new Scottish nationalism is that it is at root more anti–
Conservative than pro-devolution. If the UK parliament had reflected the
Scottish political scene, and Labour had been in power, then the demand
for devolution in the 1990s would have remained no more potent than it
was during the 1970s.
But ot all the constitutional reforms on which Tony Blair has now
embarked-about all of which, as we have seen, he is at best ambivalent–
it is Scottish devolution which bears most resemblance to the
Jugll-a
Japanese fish which, unless properly cooked, causes instant death. At the
moment Scotland is effectively subsidized by England-fine, in a uni tary
state where there is consent. One ot the most likely effects of the new
Scottish nationalism is the reciprocal growth ot a force that has been dor–
mant since the Act of Union in 1707: English nationalism. It will include
variations on the theme of "why are we subsidising the Scots?" and is a cry
that the Conservative Party, desperate tor a rol e, and based squarely in
England, will shout with relish. This is where it gets tun. The Scottish
Parliament is allowed to increase income tax by a maximum of three pence
in the pound, which is a total ot 450 million pounds . The subsidy is about
one billion pounds. Assuming that it is wi thdrawn, or even lessened-a big
assumption, but pertectly realistic-there is a black hole of up
to
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