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tensive and accurate that it is not unfair for people to assume they do
know the score from polls. So we do have a very real problem with
what to do with information that does exist and is in the hands of some
people. I'm not sure that I see a solution. But I think you've raised a
very real issue.
Marty Lipset in
The New York Times
about a month ago wondered
whether or not there weren't polling situations in which people gave
inaccurate information about their voting plans, particularly this year. I
think some people are probably embarrassed to acknowledge, for exam–
ple, that they may vote for President Bush. President Bush is widely per–
ceived as unlikely to be successful, and as a less-than-triumphant president
in many respects. As a consequence, it is very possible, under the circum–
stances, that the real margin between candidates is less wide than it ap–
pears to be. Again, I think you speak to a real problem, but I don't see
an answer.
Arthur Schlesinger, Jr:
I have always had a basic skepticism about
polls. I do not believe that you can call up six hundred and thirty-two
people and get an accurate representation of what two hundred and fifty
million people feel. We all know the volatility of polls, particularly in an
election such as this one, when none of the candidates is personally very
popular, and when therefore there are a large number of undecided
people who could shift the vote one way or another. So I think that
the best hope for preventing polls from dominating is the kind of natural
skepticism that Harry Kahn expressed, and which people are increasingly
likely to express. Pollsare like taking your temperature; they tell what
your temperature is at the moment, but they can't predict what it is
going to be tomorrow.
Heather Macdonald:
This is a question for Professor Schlesinger. You
persuasively describe the correlation between the decline of the party and
the decline of voter participation in politics. But I'm not certain what
specific feature of the party you single out as the causal factor. Is it the
party as an organization that can put pressure on people to actually get
out and vote, or is it the party as a source of ideology? You character–
ized the Republicans as the party of business and the Democrats as the
party of government, suggesting that when those ideas fractured, people
had less of a connection to a set of ideas to get involved with. Or is it
simply that we need a mediating organization to belong to, to affiliate
ourselves with, in order to increase our participation in politics?
Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.:
I suppose it is both those things. I would put
